The slaughter of 12 children on an Israeli soccer pitch was awful, of course, but it’s important not to overreact to these things. That is the takeaway from the Majdal Shams attack for United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. Via his spokesperson, Guterres condemned the killings but called for ‘maximum restraint’ to avoid ‘any further escalation’ and urged all parties to ‘recommit to the full implementation of Security Council resolution 1701’ and ‘a cessation of hostilities’.
Wise words indeed, and I’m sure we all hope that Hezbollah will heed them. It was the Lebanon-based Islamist organisation that carried out the attack using an Iranian-made Falaq-1 rocket. It’s fair to say dropping 110lbs of explosives on children shows only minimum restraint. As for avoiding further escalation, Hezbollah couldn’t agree more. After initially boasting of its latest barrage against Israel, the Iranian proxy group changed its mind when reports came in that it had killed 12 children. Twelve Arab children. Tough day for the PR department at Death to the Jews HQ. The boasting was walked back and responsibility denied.
Security Council resolution 1701, in case you’re wondering, was the UN’s solution to the Second Lebanon War. It called on Israel and Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon and the Lebanese government to exert control over its territory and prevent it being used by Hezbollah to resume hostilities. Even if you’re not familiar with the exact details, you already know what happened: Israel withdrew, Hezbollah didn’t, Beirut never exerted control and Hezbollah continued to use southern Lebanon as a base from which to attack Israel. Since 7 October alone, Hezbollah has fired 5,000 rockets at Israel, out of an arsenal of 150,000. We might have to conclude that they’re not interested in a cessation of hostilities.
Of course, we all know that Guterres’ words were not intended for Hezbollah, they were meant for Benjamin Netanyahu, his government and its citizens. Restraint, like proportional responses and international law, is something forever enjoined on Israel but seldom her enemies. But what would restraint look like? What is the restrained response to those who blow children to pieces in front of their soccer coach? Swat Hezbollah with a few IAI Harops? ‘Let that be a lesson to you, Hassan Nasrallah.’
The phrase ‘any further escalation’ is the one that gets me. Vinees Adham Alsafadi went out to play football on Saturday and didn’t come home. She was 11. Milad Muadad Alsha’ar was bombed doing what comes naturally to boys the world over: darting around after a ball dreaming of being the next Messi. He was ten. Majdal Shams is a Druze village and the Druze are generally regarded as a stoical people, but no amount of stoicism can lessen the horror of burying 12 children within 24 hours of one another. Any further escalation? What escalation is there beyond murdering Vinees and Milad and their friends? What could Israel do that would match let alone outpace such depravity?
There is no appetite in Israel for another ground war. Bluntly, there is no capacity either. Israel will extract a price from Hezbollah but it will be much less than they deserve. Much less than would be required to deter them from further attacks. Yet when that price comes to be paid, expect the UN and the NGOs and the British Foreign Office to scold and condemn and denounce. There is no restraint Israel could show that would satisfy the one-eyed umpires of warfare etiquette. They simply do not regard Israeli self-defence as legitimate.
And they are in plentiful company. You will search in vain for reports of marches in London, Paris, New York or Sydney decrying the bombing of 12 Arab children. They were the wrong kind of Arabs, bombed by the wrong people. Twelve children won’t show up for football practice in Majdal Shams this Saturday and all the world cares about is restraint.
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