Robert Peston Robert Peston

The utter irrelevance of the Tories and Labour

Call me old fashioned, but I find it impossible to see how any Tory leader could survive crashing to fifth place in a national election and picking up just 7 per cent of the vote – which is what YouGov predicts in the Times.

Of course it’s only one survey. The real vote tomorrow may yield a better outcome. And Labour is also set for a humiliating night, with just 13 per cent of votes cast, say the pollsters.

But 7 per cent for the supposed natural party of government, for just the past couple of centuries, is the kind of humiliation that few institutions would shrug off. May should count herself very fortunate she isn’t a football manager, because she’d have been back managing Port Vale some time ago.

I am of course talking only about the timing of her departure, not the inevitability of it. The moot question is whether she will quit next week. Her great defender, Michael Gove, said probably not. Rancorous Tory MPs tell me she must.

I should mention, because these things seem to matter to prime ministers, if May were to announce her intention to go on Wednesday, she would have remained in office a day longer than Gordon Brown (I think).

What is striking however is the absolutely yawning gap between our MPs and the people of Britain about what really matters.

For voters, the European Parliamentary Elections appear to show it is all about Brexit.

YouGov shows backing for a hard or no-deal Brexit at 40 per cent via intentions to vote for the Brexit Party (a staggering 37 per cent) and Ukip.

Whereas support for a referendum would ALSO be 40 per cent, aggregating the support for LibDems, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Change UK.

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