The virus threat has changed. Now Test and Trace must too

Under what circumstances can a government restrict the liberty of the people? An example was given last year: in a public health emergency, to contain a pandemic which threatens to overrun the health service. Opinions may differ on how close we came to this in March 2020, but the question remains relevant now. Is there any realistic threat, today, of the NHS being overwhelmed? And if not, why is Test and Trace still pinging and confining thousands of people every day?

When the Test and Trace system was introduced in May last year, it was supposed to prevent another lockdown. In the absence of a vaccine (there was no guarantee at that stage that we would ever have one), the idea of tracking people who had come into close contact with someone who had tested positive, and making them isolate, was the best hope we had for resuming normal life. Ministers were assured that while this scheme was staggeringly expensive — £5 billion at the last count — it would prevent a second wave.

Since then several vaccines have been introduced and 86 per cent of the UK adult population now carry antibodies to the virus. The third wave of infections is (so far) leading to half as many hospitalisations as were envisaged by the Sage scenarios used to extend lockdown. Vaccinations have been so effective at preventing infection and illness among vulnerable older groups that, according to calculations by The Spectator, the average age of someone testing positive has fallen to 26. The people who are now contracting the virus are also highly unlikely to get seriously ill from it.

We need to brace ourselves for far more infections — perhaps as many as three million. But the vast majority will be among the young, and either mild or asymptomatic.