Alex Massie Alex Massie

The Weakness of the Case for a Romney Comeback – Spectator Blogs

Bob Wright correctly observes that we should soon be treated to a barrage of Romney Combeack stories chiefly because the press needs a new story to tell and this is one of the few even semi-plausible tales remaining. It may even be necessary to concoct a Romney comeback even without there being any actual evidence for a Mitt Recovery. (Conservative fans of Scoop will recognise this as the Wendell Jakes Gambit*).

Be that as it may, you need only read the most optimistic pieces of pro-Romney straw-clutching now appearing in newspapers and magazines on both sides of the Atlantic to appreciate how improbable Romney’s resurrection is. I mean, can’t they do better than this?

Take, for instance, Andrew Roberts’ piece in the new edition of Standpoint. He begins:

Romney’s first hope must be that people are simply lying to pollsters, and not wanting to seem racist by admitting that they are planning to vote against America’s first black president.

This seems an unpromising beginning. Undaunted Roberts, who, if I recall, has the dubious distinction of being one of those chaps once asked to “advise” George W Bush, continues:

Romney’s second cause for hope is that in Ohio, Florida and Virginia, Obama’s job approval rating is hovering at or below 50 per cent, which is hardly healthy for a president seeking re-election in a recession.

Actually, Obama’s approval rating is pretty much exactly at 50%. And he has significant leads in Virginia, Ohio and Florida. Moreover, the trend is slightly but importantly up. Saying it is “hovering” makes it seem a more fragile finding than it really is. Moreover, history suggests that Romney probably needs Obama’s approval rating to fall below 47% if he is to have a chance. That may sound a small difference but in a reasonably equally divided country small differences are both difficult to achieve and assume huge significance once their effects are felt.

Furthermore, though it is true that the US economy continues to splutter there is ample evidence that the picture is uneven and that the economy is doing better in Ohio and, most especially, Virginia than is the case across the country as a whole.

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