The world isn’t listening to Keir Starmer’s climate preaching

Keir Starmer said he was travelling to Cop 29 in Baku intending to “lead the world on climate change”. But it must surely be obvious that he is, instead, barking at a world that is heading in the opposite direction. Last year’s grand talk about “phasing down” fossil fuels at Cop 28 notwithstanding, today’s Global Carbon Budget Report forecasts that global carbon emissions will hit another record high in 2024, reaching 41.6 billion tonnes, up from 40.6 billion tonnes in 2023. The report calls this “marginal”, but it’s actually a 2.5 per cent increase, including all carbon emissions from industry and land use, as well as fossil fuel burning.

Europe may be doing its bit – emissions are estimated to have dropped by 3.8 per cent over the year – but the rest of the world isn’t following suit. US emissions are down by a mere 0.6 per cent, despite some hailing Joe Biden as a climate hero. In China, emissions are up by 0.2 per cent, and in India by a notable 4.6 per cent. Emissions from international aviation and shipping, which don’t count toward any country’s total, are expected to rise by 7.8 per cent. Any sign of the world phasing down fossil fuel use? Sadly not. Emissions from coal are up 0.2 per cent, oil by 0.9 per cent, and gas by 2.4 per cent.

While global emissions have largely plateaued over the past decade, and even declined in three years – 2013, 2016, and during the Covid-hit year of 2020 – there remains an enormous gulf between what world leaders say they’ll do at Cop summits and what they actually go home and implement.

This year, many have chosen not even to attend, including Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, and Xi Jinping – making Starmer’s claim of “leading the world” appear even more preposterous. No other country seems willing to follow Britain’s example of committing to net zero targets at any economic cost. While China and others invest heavily in electric vehicles, wind, and solar energy, they are unwilling to compromise the affordability or reliability of their energy supplies. China still generates 60 per cent of its electricity – yes, the power used to manufacture wind turbines and solar panels for export to Britain – from coal. Given the choice between meeting arbitrary international targets and growing their economies, most world leaders opt for the latter. Even developed countries with emissions reduction plans are not all winding down their fossil fuel industries as Britain is. The US, Canada, and Norway appear committed to expanding output.

The question remains: how much longer can Starmer – and other Western European leaders – sustain the claim that they’re setting an example for the rest of the world by racing towards net zero targets? It seems fitting that Cop takes place annually around Remembrance Sunday. Britain’s industry-destroying net zero commitment has the air of a supreme sacrifice – although, unlike the Allied effort in the Second World War, this sacrifice may sadly be in vain.