As Douglas Ross and his colleagues gather for the annual Scottish Tory conference in Aberdeen this weekend, there are good reasons for the Scottish Conservatives to feel more upbeat than their counterparts elsewhere.
In 1997, Scotland proved particularly emblematic of New Labour’s landmark victory. Where the Conservative Party had held 11 seats, they now held none. Their share of the popular vote fell to just over 17 per cent. Three serving cabinet ministers – Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind, Scottish Secretary Michael Forsyth and President of the Board of Trade Ian Lang – were among the more high-profile casualties. As defeats go, it was comprehensive, and reflected a UK-wide disaffection after nearly two decades of Conservative government.
But today, while polls frequently suggest Rishi Sunak’s party could be facing a result of equal calamity across much of the country, this is not the case in Scotland. Though the Scottish Conservatives have fallen back in the polls, they are facing nothing close to a 1997-style wipe-out and could even gain on the seven seats they already hold in Scotland.
Late last year, a seat-by-seat polling analysis by the consultancy Stonehaven suggested the Scottish Conservatives could win as many as 11 seats. Such projections may prove ambitious but, as the 2017 general election proved, it is now possible for the Conservatives to make substantial gains in Scotland while falling back elsewhere in the UK.
Firstly, there is the steady disintegration of the SNP vote amid incompetence, scandal and police investigation. While this is equally – if not more of – a boon to Scottish Labour, it will also benefit the Scottish Conservatives. Thanks in large part to the work of former leader Ruth Davidson, the Tories are once again the main challenger to the SNP in much of Scotland outside the Central Belt. Therefore, it is Ross’ party that stands to benefit in large parts of Scotland when voters express their disaffection with the SNP and nationalists choose to stay at home.
The Scottish Conservatives have frequently proved themselves a better judge of the public mood in Scotland than their seemingly more popular competitors.
Secondly, through prudent positioning, the UK government has actively wooed many Scottish voters and particular those in Conservative heartlands and target seats. Under Alex Salmond, the SNP was very much the party of Scotland’s oil and gas industry, but equivocation around its future by first Nicola Sturgeon, and then Humza Yousaf, has allowed Sunak and Ross to steal this mantle.
Meanwhile, Scottish Labour are in even more difficulty on this issue, facing a massive backlash over their plans to raise and extend a windfall tax on the North Sea industry, which companies warn could cost tens of thousands of jobs. The Scottish Conservatives are therefore now the only avowedly pro-oil and gas party in Scotland, and this could prove a decisive factor as they look to hold onto existing seats and make gains in Scotland’s north east.
Equally, support for investment zones in cities such as Aberdeen – as well as tax breaks for the Scotch whisky industry, much of which is based in Ross’ constituency of Moray – are part of a wider economic charm offensive in Tory target areas. Further support for Scottish industry in Jeremy Hunt’s coming budget would only enhance his party’s appeal.
Finally, the Scottish Conservatives – and their oft-maligned leader, Ross – have in recent years frequently proved themselves a better judge of the public mood in Scotland than their seemingly more popular competitors. For instance, they were the only party to oppose the SNP’s deeply-flawed gender bill, which was backed by every every other party.
Similarly, they were also the first party to call out the SNP‘s woeful record on economic growth, the consequences of which were particularly strongly felt in the nationalists’ recent tax-raising budget. During a trying two years for the Tory brand, such positions have helped keep the Scottish Conservatives relevant where they may otherwise have sunk without trace.
Of course, there is still considerable time before the next general election, and much could still change. But it is already clear that the Scottish Conservatives are not going to see a 1997-style wipe-out in Scotland. On the contrary – and perhaps surprisingly – Scotland could well turn out to be a bright spot for the Conservative party in an otherwise very dark general election campaign.
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