There’s a growing sense that tomorrow belongs to Sinn Fein

Where can Ulster Unionism go now? If it were a person, it would be someone in the grip of a long depression, whose occasional bursts of anger mask the fact that they so often feel despondent and betrayed. The widespread reaction to the latest Northern Ireland census, in which Catholics narrowly outnumber Protestants for the first time, is unlikely to give it a reason to be cheerful. A jubilant Michelle O’Neill, the Sinn Fein vice-leader, was quick to claim that ‘historic change is happening across this island’, while other party members called for a referendum on unity. The rallying cry of Sinn Fein has long been ‘Tiocfaidh ár lá’, which translates as ‘our day will come’. In the zero-sum game of Northern Irish politics, to Unionist ears it also translates as ‘your day is over’.

As with most things in Northern Ireland, of course, the census results are more complex than they seem: the fact that 45.7 per cent identify as Catholic or from a Catholic background, next to 43.5 per cent from Protestant and other Christian backgrounds, doesn’t directly correlate to a majority for a United Ireland. The number of non-believers is growing, recalling that old joke: ‘Are you a Catholic atheist or a Protestant atheist?’ Nor do all Catholics necessarily want a united Ireland, particularly one in which a visit to the GP costs €60. National identities are becoming blurrier, too, with people variously identifying as British, Irish, Northern Irish or bespoke combinations of the above: for a sizeable number, their border preferences are anyone’s guess.

Nonetheless there is a prevailing sense that – with a fragmented Unionism in the North, and rising fury at the establishment in the South – tomorrow belongs to Sinn Fein. In the last Assembly elections, it was returned as the largest party for the first time, meaning that O’Neill, its Northern leader, is now designated First Minister of Northern Ireland, with the Democratic Unionist party’s Jeffrey Donaldson as Deputy First Minister.