Voting kicks off today amongst Tory MPs in the first round of ballots to decide who will be Prime Minister. Little seems certain about the outcome of a leadership election which has already offered up much drama in the first week. But based on the large support of Conservative MPs gathering behind Theresa May, it is difficult to imagine the Home Secretary not being on the final shortlist going to members. According to our list of which Tory MPs are backing who, May now has the support of more than 100 of her Conservative colleagues. That tally puts her way in front of her rivals, with Andrea Leadsom trailing in second with 38 Tory MPs behind her. Whilst many Conservative MPs haven’t publicly sided one way or the other, the consensus around May is building. She now has the support of ten of her fellow Cabinet colleagues and based on the steady trickle of Tory MPs who have backed her over the last week, she has the momentum (particularly compared to Michael Gove, who seems to have struggled to gain many public endorsements since he announced his bid).
What’s more, Theresa May has also been handed a big boost by a poll conducted of Conservative party members of who they would side with. May wins on every count in the Times and YouGov survey, which suggests she would triumph by an astonishing 32-point margin if she went toe-to-toe with Andrea Leadsom in the final round. The Home Secretary is favoured as the strongest leader (63 per cent), the one able to make the toughest decisions (58 per cent) and also, crucially, as the unifying candidate in this vote (61 per cent). Interestingly, too, despite her stance as a ‘Remainer’ in the referendum campaign, 44 per cent of those surveyed said they thought May would get the best deal from the EU, compared to a quarter who sided with Leadsom and 16 per cent with Michael Gove. May’s clear appeal is that she is the experience candidate who is unwilling to compromise. Although she was on the ‘wrong’ side of the referendum campaign, her high-profile run-ins with the likes of the Police Federation linger in the memory of many Tories who see her clear ability not to put up with any nonsense.
Theresa May also makes the most of her backing from the Daily Mail today to set out her pitch to the paper’s readers as the safe pair of hands: she promises Trident renewal and also draws on her experience chairing Cobra meetings. Whilst Andrea Leadsom might have emerged as a frontrunner over the past week, she has few points to score against May on topics such as these. And if today’s survey of Conservative members is anything to go on, then it seems May’s experience is winning over Tory supporters and will ultimately help her triumph.
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