Everything you need to know about the current state of the polls is summed up by the fact that one which puts the Tories at 40 per cent, a level that they haven’t hit in a general election for a quarter of a century, and 11 points clear is presented as a blow to them. Now, the reason that the Mail on Sunday has done this is because other polls have the Tories so far ahead that a mere 11 point lead looks rather anaemic.
ComRes has the Tories at a jaw-dropping 50 per cent, with Labour on 25 per cent. YouGov puts the Tories on 48 per cent, and 23 points ahead. Interestingly, it also finds that May is more trusted than Corbyn on the NHS suggesting that even Labour’s banker issue won’t save it this time. Indeed, the most worrying thing for Labour about the Copeland by-election was not the ease with which the Tories overturned their two and a half thousand majority but the fact that they did so despite a campaign in which the NHS, because of the possible closure of the maternity ward at the local hospital, played such a big role.
At the moment, May’s gamble in calling the election looks like paying off handsomely. There’s been no voter backlash to her going back on her commitment not to have one.
The riskiest bit of the bet she’s made is now what happens in Scotland. But even there, there are encouraging signs for her—as Fraser points out. The great John Curtice calculates that the latest Panelbase poll suggests that the Tories will win 12 seats north of the border, meaning the SNP will lose a double-digit number of MPs. If this were to happen, it would break the Nationalists’ momentum and ensure that it continues to look ‘reasonable’ for Theresa May to block any second independence referendum until after the Brexit deal has been implemented.
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