There are few things more predictable than people talking about the unpredictability of politics. We live in an age, we are told incessantly, in which anything can happen politically — and regularly does. Yet there is one exception. Westminster is already sure about the result of the next general election: a majority for Theresa May. One long-serving Tory MP tells me the party has never been more certain of victory in his lifetime.
The Tories, with their 15-point poll lead, do look far better placed today than they did, say, 18 months before either of the Thatcher landslides, in 1983 and 1987. It isn’t just the Tory tribe who are convinced they’ll win, either. Labour MPs are looking for jobs now to beat the rush that they suspect will follow the next election.
What’s the explanation for this paradox? Well, it used to be Jeremy Corbyn. The view was that he was unelectable and that the more the British public found out about him, the more unelectable the party he led would become.
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