Things can always get worse for the Tories

Before migrating to Wiltshire where I will be for August, I had a friendly dinner with a clutch of Conservative aficionados. Inevitably the conversation turned to the leadership contest and, having disposed of the poison pill, Suella Braverman, they asked me which candidate, as a Labour person, I would fear most. This was quite a challenging question. James Cleverly is clearly a nice chap but his fondness for blokeish chat may prove career-shortening. Robert Jenrick’s views seem to depend on who he is talking to. Ditto the vanilla Tom Tugendhat. Mel Stride is inoffensive and otherwise undefinable. I doubt Priti Patel’s appeal will reach beyond a segment of her party. Then there is Kemi. I recalled attending a dinner that had a rather prestigious guest of honour where Kemi arrived late, sat down noisily, asked a none-too-bright question and left early. But, but. Being noisy is not a disqualification when, as opposition leader, you are struggling for attention. She is not afraid to speak her mind (although an occasional filter might be handy) or to call out the sort of ‘wokery’ many voters dislike. I noticed my companions turning in her direction.

It is going to be difficult for any new Tory leader to assemble a credible governing project given where the party is starting from. There is also a possibility that Labour will be even harder to defeat in 2028 than in 2024. This year, Labour’s central task was to allow the ruthless tactical voting system to do its work and cut a swathe through Tory ranks. Next time, when people have got used to a Labour government and grown to like Keir Starmer’s unpretentious style, his current vote-share may turn into a floor rather than a ceiling. I realise there are lots of imponderables, including how well a lot of Labour ministers do their jobs.