Tomorrow’s Randox Grand National (4 p.m.), the world’s most famous horse race, is the highlight of an excellent card at Aintree and I think the bookies have got it right with the horses they have put at the top of the market.
Stumptown, who could yet go off as favourite, is the best weighted horse in the race given that he would be given several pounds more if the handicapper was allowed to take his recent Cheltenham Festival win into consideration. His victory by seven lengths in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase came, however, after the weights were published and this is a race in which there are no winning penalties.
There are no real negatives for Stumptown other than he had a fairly hard race over more than three and a half miles less than a month ago and some punters would prefer to back a horse that had been kept fresh for this marathon contest.
That’s very much the case with both Intense Raffles and Iroko, two improving handicap chasers who have been aimed at this race, almost to the exclusion of all others, for the entire season. The slight negative for both, particularly Intense Raffles, is that they would ideally prefer much softer ground that the watered good to soft going that they are likely to encounter tomorrow.
Last year’s winner I Am Maximus, from the in-form Willie Mullins yard, returns with a real chance of landing the spoils for the second year running but he must carry top weight after being put up 8 lbs in the official ratings for his comfortable victory 12 months ago. That would be enough to anchor most horses but perhaps not this one.
A good case can be made too for the likes of Vanillier, Hewick and Perceval Legallois but I have already suggested three bets at big prices ante-post so I won’t be backing any more horses in the race. Hyland, put up each way at 25-1, will have the fairly quick ground that he needs to be at his best; Kandoo Kid, put up each way at 33-1, will be fine on the ground too; but Monbeg Genius, also put up each way at 33-1, would prefer the going to be much softer and, although it’s not impossible for him to run well on the watered good to soft terrain, his chance of winning have faded.
So… getting off the fence, I think the most likely winner of the race is Iroko but he is only a single-figure price and, since betting is about getting value, if I was only having one bet today, it would be on Hyland each way at odds of 20-1, six or more places, to give veteran trainer Nicky Henderson his first win in the race.
I have already put up Marble Sands each way at 20-1, in today’s Randox Supporting Prostate Cancer UK Topham Handicap Chase (4.05 p.m.) and I fancy him to run a big race. In the same race, stable jockey Nico be Boinville has opted to ride Nicky Henderson’s potentially well-handicapped Excello ahead of stablemate FANTASTIC LADY in this race, leaving James Bowen on what appears to be the yard’s second string.
The latter, now a ten-year-old-mare, has been a standing dish in this race for the past three years. After unseating her rider at the first in 2022, she has finished second and sixth in this race, both on very soft ground. Fantastic Lady is a much better mare on good ground as she showed less than a year ago when winning a Grade 2 race at Sandown, beating amongst others Ga Law. Today she finally gets her favoured decent ground over the Aintree fences and so back her 1 point each way at 25-1 with bet365 paying six places.
In the last race on today’s card, the Hallgarten and Novum Wines Handicap Hurdle, I like the chances of MOON CHIME for the in-form David Killahena and Graeme McPherson yard. He has been put up all of 11 lbs for his easy win at Stratford but he is a horse on the up. Sadly, the 33-1 available yesterday morning with bet365 has long gone but back him 1 point each way at 11-1 with William Hill, paying five places.
Tomorrow it may seem foolish to take on Nicky Henderson’s highly thought of Lulamba in the Grade 1 Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (1.55 p.m.) but I have a soft spot for Stuart Edmunds’ six-year-old gelding MIAMI MAGIC, who I am convinced has his best days ahead of him. He was no match for Tripoli Flyer over two miles at Kempton last time out but this longer trip and slightly quicker ground should see him improve on that run. Back him 1 point each way at with BetVictor or Coral at 14-1 paying 3 places.
Finally, I am hoping I have spotted some value in the two big races at Ayr next weekend: Saturday April 12. WELSH CHARGER has won two of his last three races including on his most recent run when landing the bet365 Scottish County Handicap Hurdle at Musselburgh for his underrated trainer Alastair Ralph. He’s been saved for the Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr (2.15 p.m.) ever since and so back him 1 point each way at 33-1 with Paddy Power, Ladbrokes or Coral, all paying four places.
In the Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase at Ayr a week tomorrow (3.35 p.m.), handler Alastair Ralph has another horse that looks overpriced in the shape of MAGNA SAM, who won the bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase at Musselburgh last time out and who has also been put away for this Ayr target. He needs 26 horses above him to come out to get a run and he is out of the handicap too. But it’s still likely he will get a run and possibly from in the handicap as the two top weights at Ayr run tomorrow in the Aintree Grand National and so they are highly unlikely to run again a week later.
It’s also worth remembering that Magna Sam ran well in the Scottish National two years ago on quick ground when fifth to Kitty’s Light, beaten less than nine lengths. Back Magna Sam 1 point each way at 50-1 with bet365 and William Hill because, provided he is declared at the 48-hour declaration stage, stakes will be refunded if he does not make the cut for the race.
In the same race, however, I expect Lucinda Russell’s WHISTLE STOP TOUR to have a huge chance of landing the spoils. It is easy to put a line what looked like a disappointing run in the Ultima Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last month when he was almost brought down by a faller at the very first fence and was looked after by his jockey, Derek Fox, after that, eventually being pulled up.
The stable rates this horse very highly and hopes he will be up to running in the Aintree National in a year or two. He’s almost certainly going to be rated a lot higher than 136 over chases in time so he looks a good bet off that rating now. Back him 1 point each way at 16-1 with bet365, Ladbrokes or Coral, all paying four places.
That’s six bets put up in a single blog, more than ever before by my reckoning, plus three ante-post bets already suggested for today’s Grand National but there is hopefully some value lurking there for this weekend and next.
Last weekend: no settled bet
Pending:
1 point each way Marble Sands at 20-1 for the Topham Chase, paying ¼ odds, 4 places
1 point each way Fantastic Lady at 25-1 for the Topham Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Moon Chime at 11-1 for the Hallgarten and Novum Wines Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Miami Magic at 14-1 for the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Kandoo Kid at 33-1 for the Grand National, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Monbeg Genius at 33-1 NRNB for the Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Hyland at 25-1 NRNB for the Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Welsh Charger for the Scottish Champion Hurdle, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Magna Sam at 50-1 for the Scottish National, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Whistle Stop Tour at 16-1 for the Scottish National, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
2024-5 jump season running total: – 35.21 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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