Tomorrow’s Cheltenham Trials Day, as its name suggests, usually throws up plenty of clues to which horses will be winning at the festival on the same course in less than two months’ time.
There is no doubt which horse running tomorrow is most likely to triumph at the festival itself and that is Constitution Hill. However, Nicky Henderson’s unbeaten eight-year-old gelding is at odds of around 1-10 tomorrow for the Unibet Hurdle (3 p.m.) and none of his four opponents will trouble him if he runs to his best. So that race is out of bounds as a betting proposition.
The Grade 2 Betfair Cleeve Hurdle (3.35 p.m.) over three miles has attracted eight runners and is a much more competitive affair. Crambo and Strong Leader are officially the highest-rated horses in the race and are at the head of the market.
GOWEL ROAD, Nigel Twiston-Davies’ consistent nine-year-old gelding, does not have the class to go on and win the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle at the Festival in March but he does have every chance of landing tomorrow’s Betfair Cleve Hurdle (3.35 p.m.), worth nearly £40,000 to the winner.
That’s because, under the conditions of the race, Gowel Road is in receipt of 6 lbs from the two market leaders as well as Botox Has, representing the Gary and Josh Moore yard. He will also be favoured by the heavy overnight rain which has turned the ground to ‘soft, good to soft in places’. Back Gowel Road 1 point each way at 9-2, odds being offered by BetVictor, Betfred, Ladbrokes and Coral.
In the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (1.50 p.m.), the one that looks overpriced is GRANDEUR D’AME, who is another horse that will not be inconvenience by soft ground. His trainer, Alan King, had been thinking of upping him in trip to three miles but this trip of two miles four and a half furlongs on a testing surface should be just fine.
Grandeur d’Ame won first time out at Chepstow this season in a race in which the form has worked out extremely well. He was only fifth in the December Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last month but I think he is better than he showed that day.
Back him each way at 16-1 with bet365 or Betfred, paying four places, rather than taking a couple of points higher with William Hill, offering one place less. I will leave the other Cheltenham races, including the Grade 2 Betfair Cotswold Chase (2.25 p.m.), alone from a betting perspective and simply enjoy watching them.
Doncaster also stages a decent card tomorrow in which the betting highlight is the Virgin Bet Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (3.15p.m.). I put up Forward Plan for the race a week ago, each way at 12-1, and he is now half that price. I am happy with that bet but I also want to go in double-handed with Emma Lavelle’s improving eight-year-old gelding TIGHTENOURBELTS.
He’s on a hat-trick after wins in handicaps at Exeter and Ludlow and he is also therefore up in the ratings to an official mark of 140. This is a horse that Lavelle rated highly enough to run in the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton just over a year ago when, like the rest of the field, he could not cope with an on-song Il Est Francais. Tightenourbelts is a good ground horse and, now that Doncaster has missed the worst of the rain, back him each way at 10-1 with bet365, paying five places.
Next week, on top of racing in Britain, I will be taking a close look at the Dublin Racing Festival.
Pending:
1 point each way Grandeur D’Ame at 16-1 in the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Forward Plan at 12-1 for the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Tightenourbelts at 10-1 for the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Gowel Road at 9-2 for the Betfair Cleve Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way July Flower at 11-1 for the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Liam Swagger at 33-1 for the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Djelo at 16-1 for Ryanair Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Ahoy Senor at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Kandoo Kid at 33-1 for the Grand National, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
Last weekend: – 6 points.
1 point each way Brentford Hope at 16-1 for the Sovereign Handicap Hurdle, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Fortescue at 9-2 for the Veterans’ Chase Final, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Ahoy Senor at S.P. for the Fleur de Lys Chase. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2024-5 jump season running total: – 24.3 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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