The all-important ground conditions at Glorious Goodwood have varied from ‘good to soft’ to ‘heavy’ this week and that trend could continue over the next two days with a mixed forecast. Throw in the complications of the draw and the unique undulating track and there are plenty of challenges out there for punters.
Starting with today, there are two competitive handicaps that always grab my attention: the Coral Goodwood Handicap (1.50 p.m.) over a marathon trip of more than two and a half miles and the Coral Golden Mile (3 p.m.).
Over the last decade, horses drawn in single figures have won nine of the last ten runnings of the Golden Mile and horses drawn one to five have the best record of all. Last year’s contest went to a horse drawn 2 (Orbaan) and a horse drawn 1 was second (Blue for You). Both of these stablemates run again today but this time from double figure draws.
I have already put up Revich each way for the Golden Mile and I am more than happy with that price of 33-1 and his draw in stall 1. As a hold-up horse, however, he will need luck in running in this 20-runner field.
Lattam and Tacarib Bay head the market are being drawn in berths 3 and 4 respectively and, with strong recent form, both have huge chances of landing this £77,000-plus first prize.
But, at a bigger price, I am going to take a chance and put up another well-drawn horse, THE GATEKEEPER, who will come out of stall 5. Charlie Johnston’s tough four-year-old gelding likes to race prominently and can take advantage of his good draw by springing a surprise. Back him each way at 18-1 with Paddy Power or Betfair, both paying six places.
After the 48-hour declarations were published yesterday morning, I could not believe the prices of two horses with bet365 for the Goodwood Handicap, the first race on today’s card. Vino Victrix was 33-1 and Law of the Sea was 25-1. Sadly, other punters agreed these odds were too big because the prices on both horses have now more than halved. As a result, I will give this race a miss, betting wise, as it is very competitive and the current prices are no longer generous.
However, a similar thing happened last week when I wrote that I had been hoping to put up Baradar for the International Moet & Chandon Stakes at Ascot at the 33-1 available earlier in the week. Yet by last Friday morning, he was only 6-1 and that was too short. Sod’s law, Baradar drifted like a barge the next day and won at 16-1. That’s what happens when your luck is out!
Tomorrow’s card is challenging and, as already stated, the weather will have its say on the results with more of the wet stuff forecast. The Coral Stewards’ Cup (tomorrow, 3.35 p.m.) is a wide-open contest with 28 runners due to speed down this downhill six furlong track. I have already put up Juan Les Pins for this race but his chances will be harmed by further rain as he prefers fast ground.
I am also going to suggest a bet on a horse that is, unusually, off a career-high mark at the age of eight. SPANISH STAR has done his trainer, Patrick Chamings, proud this season winning twice. More importantly, this gelding has rock-solid course and distance form, with three wins, and he relishes soft ground too. Back him each way at 16-1 with Sky Bet offering eight places rather than backing him at 20-1 with bookies offering less places.
Finally, a somewhat left-field bet for the Coral Summer Handicap (tomorrow, 2.25 p.m.). EUCHEN GLEN, who is a wonderful old warrior and favourite horse of mine over the years, has shown very little this season in five runs.
It may simply be that, aged ten, he will never win another race and retirement will beckon sooner rather than later. However, he is now very well handicapped off a mark of 96 and a combination of Goodwood, where he has run well before, and the likely soft ground, which he favours, might just rekindle his enthusiasm for the sport. Back him at 22-1 with Sky Bet paying five places rather than at 25-1 with other bookies paying less places.
As always, good luck in your battle with the old enemy and savour the final two days of this wonderful meeting.
2023 flat season running total: – 25.73 points.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Pending bets:
1 point each way Revich at 33-1 for the Golden Mile, paying 1/5th odds, five places.
1 point each way The Gatekeeper at 18-1 for the Golden Mile, paying 1/5th odds, six places.
1 point each way Euchen Glen at 22-1 for the Summer Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Juan Les Pins at 16-1 for the Stewards’ Cup, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Spanish Star at 16-1 for the Stewards’ Cup, paying 1/5 odds, eight places.
Settled bets:
1 point each way Royal Scotsman at 17/2 in the 2000 Guineas, 1/5 odds, paying four places. 3rd. + 0.5 points.
1 point each way Call My Bluff at 4-1 in the Chester Cup, paying six places, 1/5th odds. 3rd. – 0.2 points.
1 point each way Safe Voyage at 12-1 in the Victoria Cup, paying seven places, 1/5th odds. 5th. + 1.4 points.
1 point each way Popmaster at 6-1 in the Connect It Utility Services Handicap
Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Royal Acclaim at 6-1 in the Temple Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 point.
1 point each way Sprewell at 10-1 for the Derby paying 1/5 odds, five places. 4th. + 1 point.
1 point each way Arrest at 4-1 for the Derby, paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points. 2 points win Saga at 14-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup.
1 point each way Mokaatil at 12-1 for the Epsom Dash, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Saga at 14-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup. Non Runner. – 2 points.
1 point each way Twilight Calls at 16-1 for the King’s Stand Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. 4th but Rule 4 deduction of 15p in the £. + 1.97 points.
2 points win Royal Scotsman at 14-1 for the St James’s Palace Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Zoffee at 14-1 for the Ascot Stakes, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Chillingham at 22-1 for the Copper Horse Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. 4th. + 3.4 points.
1 point each way Tarrabb at 10-1 for the Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. 3rd. + 1 point.
1 point each way Point Lynas at 33-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Atrium at 20-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying 1/5 odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Circle of Fire at 13/2 for the Queen’s Vase, paying 1/5th odds, four places. 4th. + 0.3 points.
2 points win Yibir at 11-1 for the Ascot Gold Cup. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rhoscolyn at 22-1 for the Buckingham Palace Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Physique at 40-1 for the Britannia Stakes, paying 1/4 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Lezoo at 9-1 for the Commonwealth Cup, paying 1/5th odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Chelsea Green at 12-1 for the Sandringham Stakes, paying 1/5 odds, eight places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Pyledriver at 15/2 for the Hardwicke Stakes. 1st but Rule 4 deduction of 30p in the £. + 9.9 points.
1 point each way Apollo One at 16-1 for the Wokingham Stakes, 1/5th odds, paying eight places. 2nd. + 2.2 points.
1 point each way Zoffee at 20-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 points each way Adjuvant at 13/2 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/5th odds, six places. 5th. + 0.3 points.
1 point each way Sprewell at 7-1 for the Irish Derby, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ouzo for the Coral Challenge at 15/2, paying 1/5th odds, five places. 2nd. + 0.5 points.
1 point each way Onesmoothoperator for the Old Newton Cup at 11-1, paying 1/5th odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Sonny Liston at 20-1 for the John Smith’s Cup, paying ¼ odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Majestic 12-1 for the John Smith’s Cup, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Streets of Gold at 8-1 for the Bunbury Cup, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 12-1 for the Bunbury Cup, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Fresh at 12-1 for the Moet & Chandon International Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, five places.
1 point each way Vafortino at 10-1 for the Moet & Chandon International Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, seven places.
1 point each way Pyledriver at 13/2 for the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, 1/5th odds, four places.
My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
Comments