The death this week of film legend Robert Redford reminded me of my favourite quotation relating to gambling. It was uttered by his fellow actor Paul Newman, who was Redford’s co-star in two of their greatest films: The Sting and Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid.
When Newman played the part of ‘Fast Eddie’ Felson in yet another film, The Color of Money, he said: ‘Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.’ I have this quote framed on the wall of my office and read it regularly as an inspiration to finding winners.
Moving on to the task in hand: trying to find a weekend winner. I usually like the challenge of big-field handicaps but the Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup tomorrow (Ayr 3.35 p.m.) is not a race I have had much success in over the years and, with 25 runners and the draw a bit of a mystery, I am happy to simply watch and enjoy the six-furlong sprint.
If I was forced to bet, it would be on Richard Fahey’s Strike Red who was second in the Coral Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood last month. This seven-year-old gelding will like the soft ground and is drawn in stall 20, with high numbers likely, but not certain, to be favoured. However, I am not being forced to strike a wager so I will pass on the race.
Instead, it is a couple of races at Newbury tomorrow in which I am happy to place some bets. In the Dubai Duty Free Handicap (2.40 p.m), I like the look of trainer Owen Burrows’s consistent three-year-old gelding NIGHT STEP. He is two wins and two seconds from four runs this season and looks progressive despite creeping up the ratings for his good runs.
The 8-1 available yesterday afternoon has long gone but back him 1 point each way at 11-2 with bet365, paying a generous four places. The two horses at the top of the market, Defiance and Almosh’her, look the big dangers in this 11-runner field racing over a distance of ten furlongs.
The earlier race on the same card, the Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (2.05 p.m.), is an even trickier contest with 14 runners racing over a trip of nearly one mile six furlongs. There are plenty of runners in with chances of landing the £38,000-plus prize to the winning connections.
The form of the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap at York last month is usually rock solid, unsurprisingly given it is the richest flat handicap in Europe. Horses that finish in the first eight places often go on to win later in the same season or the following one.
I like the form of STRESSFREE who was fourth in the Ebor and who then went on to be third in another decent handicap at Haydock, the Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup. In both of these races, the ground was faster than ideal for Stressfree but tomorrow he should finally get the cut in the ground that he prefers. Back him 1 point each way at 9-1 with Coral or Bet Victor, both paying four places.
My each-way tip for the Ebor was MAJESTIC WARRIOR, put up at 25-1, who flattered to deceive before finishing seventh. However, that was this fragile horse’s first race for more than four months and his handler, James Tate, thinks he has come on for that run.
There is certainly nothing wrong with the form of Tate’s string because the stable has had six winners from its last ten runners over the past fortnight for a strike rate of 60 per cent. Back Majestic Warrior 1 point each way too, at 6-1 with William Hill, Betfred, Coral, Bet Victor, Paddy Power or Sky Bet, all paying four places.
Next weekend sees the running of another ‘impossible’ handicap in the form of the bet365 Cambridgeshire at Newmarket. However, I have a much better record in this race than the Ayr Gold Cup so watch this space in a week’s time.
Pending:
1 point each way Majestic Warrior at 6-1 for Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Stressfree at 9-1 for the Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Night Step at 11-2 in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Real Gain at 25-1 for the Cambridgeshire, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Divine Comedy at 20-1 for the Cesarewitch, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Waardah at 8-1 for the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
Last weekend: + 1 point.
1 point each way Stay True at 8-1 for the St Leger, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places. 3rd. + 0.6 points.
1 point each way Anmaat at 7-1 for the Irish Champion Stakes, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places. 2nd. + 0.4 points.
2025 flat season running total: + 88.62 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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