If there is one trainer I think might have a memorable Cheltenham for the ‘home team’ in the face of stiff competition from Ireland, it is Harry Fry. The Dorset handler looks as if he has kept some of his best horses fresh and well with the hope of landing a couple of big prizes next month.
If the betting market is a guide, then Fry’s best hope of a winner comes in the shape of Love Envoi, who will try to win Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle on the opening day. This seven-year-old mare is a course specialist having won the 19-runner Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival last year.
However, this year’s Mares’ Hurdle is ultra-competitive with both Honeysuckle and Epatante likely to line up. So I won’t be backing anything in that race: it is too hard and the market has things about right.
Instead, I think Fry may have to wait until the final day before landing a winner. I have already put up Might I for the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle, the last race on the last day.
But I am even keener on the chances of Fry’s GIN COCO in the McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle that will be run earlier in the day on 17 March. On St Patrick’s Day, the Irish trained Filey Bay is likely to be a warm order in this race after his near miss two weeks ago in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. However, although he will have every chance, Emmet Mullins’s horse has been re-handicapped on that form and he is short enough in the betting.
Gin Coco, who is lightly raced and apparently a little fragile, has not run since finishing second to I Like To Move It in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham’s November meeting. The 4lbs rise that Gin Coco received in the ratings for that top run may prove to be lenient.
I am certain that this lightly-raced seven-year-old gelding – just six starts so far in his racing career – is capable of being rated higher than his current mark of 135 so take the 14-1 each way Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) with bet365, paying five places, for the County Hurdle.
The other horse I want to back since the handicap entries were published on Tuesday is Joe Tizzard’s ELIXIR DE NUTZ, who has put up an improved display on each of his most recent three runs this season.
His last run was particularly promising over a two-mile trip that I think is now too short for him. In a four-horse race, he split winner Funambule Sivola and third horse Greaneteen in the Grade 2 Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. Even allowing for the fact that Paul Nicholls may well have left the third horse undercooked for his Festival prep race, this was still a big run from the Tizzard horse in a non-handicap.
Now rated off a mark of 147, Elixir de Nutz has a winning chance if running in the Craft Irish Whiskey Co. Plate Handicap Chase over just over two and a half miles on 16 March.
Take the 20-1 NRNB with one of the many bookmakers, including bet365, SkyBet, BetVictor, Paddy Power and Betfred, offering both NRNB and paying five places. I hope connections opt for this longer race over the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase the day before. In fact, Tizzard said in the Racing Post today that, if the ground comes up soft, he would favour the Grand Annual for his horse so the NRNB concession is essential.
Finally, I can’t resist a bet in the Unibet Champion Hurdle on the opening day. Constitution Hill will win the race comfortably if he is at his best and if he jumps well but I think I LIKE TO MOVE IT is overpriced given his comfortable win in the Grade 2 Jennings Bet Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton last Saturday.
Nigel Twiston-Davies rates his horse highly and the six-year-old gelding already has plenty of good Cheltenham form. The key to I Like To Move It’s chances is a fast-run two-mile contest. This race could cut up badly, possibly to seven runners or less, so the three places each way on offer now is attractive.
Back him each way at 20-1, three places, with bet365, without the NRNB concession rather than 16-1 with NRNB offered by the same firm. The horse will line up, barring a setback, on 14 March so the extra four points on his price is worth the risk that he does not run.
Meanwhile, my/our Cheltenham Festival antepost bets are looking promising following the publication of the handicap entries on Tuesday. Furthermore, my/our Randox Grand National antepost bets are also looking encouraging after the publication of the weights for the marathon Aintree race, also on Tuesday.
In the two big handicaps tomorrow, I like the two of the favourites – Kitty’s Light in the Vertem Eider Handicap Chase at Newcastle and Annsam in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton – but the attractive prices on both have long gone. It means tomorrow will be a Saturday with no recommended bets.
So, be patient and for now just build a nice antepost portfolio for the Cheltenham Festival. All good things come to those who wait.
Pending bets:
1 point each way Nassalam at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chases, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 20-1 for the Unibet Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Mister Coffey at 25-1 for the National Hunt Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Camprond at 20-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way French Dynamite at 14-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Party Business at 20-1 NRNB for the Pertemps Network Hurdle Final, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 NRNB for the Plate Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Gin Coco at 14-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Hewick at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Might I at 10-1 NRNB for the Martin Pipe Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Corach Rambler at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places.
1 point each way Lifetime Ambition at 33-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
Settled:
1 point each way Hill Sixteen in the Becher Chase at 11-1, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (7th). – 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 8-1 for the Howden Silver Cup. Cancelled meeting. Stake returned.
1 point each way Eldorado Allen at 20-1 in the King George VI Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced (4th). – 2 points.
1 point each way The Big Breakaway in 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National at 20-1, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 2nd. + 3 points.
1 point each way The Big Dog at 12-1 in the Welsh Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places. 3rd. + 2 points.
1 point each way Grumpy Charley at 12-1 in the Newbury 2.25 p.m. paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st + 16.4 points.
2 points win Midnight River at 5-1 for the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m., with Skybet. 1st. + 10 points.
1 point each way Coconut Splash at 12-1 in the Cheltenham 1.55, with William Hill, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (P). – 2 points.
1 point each way Sir Ivan at 20-1 in the Sandown 3 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Lord du Mesnil at 8-1 in the Warwick 3 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dubrovnik Harry at 8-1 in the Kempton 2.40 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Mister Coffey at 15/2 for the Doncaster 3.15 p.m., 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.
1 point each way Back On The Lash at 7/1 for the Cheltenham 12.40 p.m., 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 8.4 points
1 point each way Empire Steel at 12-1 in the Sandown 3.30 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Small Present at 25-1 for the Grand National Trial (Haydock 2.40 p.m.) paying 1/4 odds, four places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Homme Public at 9-1 for Ascot 3 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2022-3 jumps season, running total + 21.8 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 13 of the past 14 seasons to recommended bets. To a one-point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 469 points. All bets are either one-point each way or two-points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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