The ground will play a key role in the outcome of the big race at Kelso tomorrow, the bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (3.30 p.m.) worth nearly £62,000 to winning connections. The going description is currently ‘good to soft, soft in places’ but with a day and a half of winter sunshine forecast it could well be nearer to ‘good’ ground by the off.
I certainly hope that is the case because the two horses I am backing both like fast ground. My number one fancy is Alan King’s FAVOUR AND FORTUNE, whose fine run when fourth to the impossibly well-handicapped Joyeuse can be marked up as he was inconvenienced by the soft ground at Newbury in the William Hill Hurdle.
Favour and Fortune, last year’s Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle winner, is still nicely handicapped on an official mark of 140 and is mighty consistent too, winning five of his 11 starts and being second in two more of them.
In his Racing Post Weekender column this week, King said: ‘Fortune and Favour has been running well on ground he’s not at his best on and I am certain he’ll do even better when he gets back on a decent surface.’
Although officially ‘soft’ the ground at Ayr when he won last April was drying out and was not really testing. Yes, he has top weight of 12st tomorrow, but he is used to similar penalties in recent races and that’s not a big worry for me.
At seven years old, Fortune and Favour should be hitting his peak and so back him 1 point each way at 7-1 with BetVictor, Ladbrokes or Coral, all paying five places.
In the same race, I can’t resist backing AUCUNRISQUE at big prices now that the ground is coming in his favour. His favoured surface is akin to that of the M4: he actually broke the course record when winning the William Hill Hurdle – then the Betfair Hurdle – on quick ground two years ago.
If – a big if – he gets an easy lead tomorrow under trainer’s son Freddie Gordon, he could take some catching off an official mark of 137, llb less than his mark when he triumphed at Newbury two years ago. Admittedly, his most run at Newbury last time out was poor but put that down the soft terrain.
Aucunrisque did win as recently as November at Ascot so he is no forlorn hope, even in a race as competitive as this. Back him 1 point each way at 25-1 with SkyBet paying six places.
There are dangers aplenty, notably Tellherthename, another good-ground horse, and Irish raider Vischio, who was impressive for his new handler Emmet Mullins when winning at Leopardstown a month ago.
In the big race at Newbury, the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (3.45 p.m.), I had expected to put up soft-ground specialist Billytherealbigred after his huge run at Newbury in January behind Jagwar on Cheltenham Trials’ Day. However, he has been found in the market and is forecast favourite at no bigger than 5-1 in a hot race for up to 16 runners.
At twice the price, I would prefer to stick with my ‘cliff horse’ SAINT SEGAL, who bumped into a real improver last time in the shape of The Kalooki Kid when second at Musselburgh. Trainer Jane Williams’ seven-year-old gelding is a course and distance winner and goes well for jockey David Noonan.
Saint Segal’s official rating of 139 is more than fair and I hope he can finally win a big pot – this one is worth almost £60,000 to winning connections – when my money is down. Back him 1 point each way at 10-1 with bet365 paying five places.
Finally, I have had my head in the form book again for the Festival handicaps, as well as reading some trainer quotes on their horses’ prospects. As a result, have singled out two more ante-post wagers for Cheltenham next month, both in races in which I have not yet bet.
In my favourite handicap chase of the week, I fancy the chances of WHISTLE STOP TOUR in the Ultima Handicap Chase on 11 March. He was clearly brought here last time out for a prep run over the Cheltenham fences but, over a trip well short of his best, he finished unplaced in January.
However, he will be up in distance provided he makes the ‘cut’ for the Ultima and the recent comments about his chances from Lucinda Russell and her partner Peter ‘Scu’ Scudamore could hardly be more encouraging, especially now that the yard had finally hit top form.
Indeed, ‘Scu’ was quoted in an attheraces.com stable tour this week as saying: ‘He is a good as anything we have sent down there [to Cheltenham] but you need a bit of luck.’ That was quite a statement, given their horse Corach Rambler won the Ultima twice before landing the Randox Grand National at Aintree and running third in the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Whistle Stop Tour was available at odds of 33-1 just over 24 hours ago but now he is a top-priced 14-1. However, take that price, 1 point each way Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) with BetVictor, offering four places.
The other horse to back is WALKING ON AIR in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase on 13 March. But for a last fence fall, he would have won Virgin Bet Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase last time out, yet he can still race off a mark of just 129 here if he makes the ‘cut’ for the race.
Back trainer Gerry Brown’s eight-year-old gelding 1 point each way at 14-1 NRNB with Sky Bet, Paddy Power or Betfair, all paying five places for the Kim Muir. The eight-year-old gelding is not ground dependent and can run well on ground from ‘good’ to ‘soft’.
When your luck is out, this sort of thing happens… I put up last Friday, as my only weekend bet, Your Own Story each way at 20-1, five places. He finished… fifth, then his jockey failed to weigh in and so the bet, rather than paying a profit of 3 points, showed a loss of 2 points with the suggested bookie, bet365. Typically, other bookies paid out on the fifth place. Hey-ho, that’s racing.
Finally, Storm Heart, as a reader of this column kindly pointed out, is not running at the Festival but since he was put up at win only NRNB for two handicap hurdles, there is no lost money. Onwards and upwards towards Cheltenham in just 11 days’ time.
Last weekend: – 2 points.
1 point each way Your Own Story at 20-1 for the Eider Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. 5th but disqualified for the jockey not weighing in. – 2 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Favour and Fortune at 7-1 for the Morebattle Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Aucunrisque at 25-1 for the Morebattle Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 10-1 for the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way July Flower at 11-1 for the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Whistle Stop Tour at 14-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chase, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Liam Swagger at 33-1 for the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places.
2 points win Haiti Couleurs at 8-1 for the National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase.
1 point each way Transmission at 12-1 for the National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Sixmilebridge at 16-1 NRNB for the Turners Novices Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Latenightpass at 16-1 for the Cross Country Chase, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Walking On Air at 14-1 NRNB for the Kim Muir Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Djelo at 16-1 for Ryanair Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Ahoy Senor at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Path d’Oroux at 25-1 NRNB for the Jack Richards Novices’ Chase, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Galileo Dame at 16-1 NRNB for the Triumph Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Our Champ at 66-1 for the County Hurdle, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Kandoo Kid at 33-1 for the Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
2024-5 jump season running total: – 31.26 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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