Make no mistake, Ed Bethell is a young man going places in the racing world. He is talented trainer, charming with it and he knows how to place his horses to great advantage. Since taking over the trainer’s licence from his father James at the start of 2021, Bethell has nearly doubled the number of horses in the yard to around 60.
This season alone, he has a superb record of 24 winners from just 84 runners for a success strike rate of 29 per cent. Horses such as the improving sprinter Regional, who has won both his races this season, are testament to Bethell’s skills.
It’s only a matter of time before one of the handler’s best horses lands a huge prize and I hope that might be as soon as tomorrow when CHILLINGHAM becomes Bethell’s very first Royal Ascot runner.
He will tackle the Willie Mullins hot-pot Vauban and 15 other rivals in the Copper Horse Handicap, the last race on the card over one mile six furlongs (6.10pm). Vauban is undoubtedly the most likely winner of the race as he is very well handicapped on the flat based on his most recent jumps campaign.
However, at odds of around 7/4, Vauban is not for me and the value available on Bethell’s four-year-old gelding is much more tempting. Chillingham looked a much-improved horse when winning his only start of this season at Thirsk over a mile and a half.
He is up in trip tomorrow and up in the rating by 7 lbs too as a result of that last run but he gets on well with jockey Callum Rodriguez and, although he would probably prefer more cut in the ground, he is not ground dependent. Back him each way at 22-1 one of several bookies paying five places, including bet365, Betfred, Paddy Power and Betfair.
The big race tomorrow is the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes (4.20pm) which is being billed by many as a match between Chaldean, the winner of the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, and Paddington, successful in the Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh.
However, I would throw two other runners into the mix: Cicero’s Gift, unbeaten in three starts and a huge improver for Charlie Hills, and ROYAL SCOTSMAN, who is inconsistent but very good at his best.
Paul and Oliver Cole’s colt ran superbly in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket despite running too freely and racing on the ‘wrong’ part of the course. On the back of his third place in that race, he was made 6/4 favourite to win in Ireland next time out where he flopped, finishing ninth of the 11 runners behind Paddington.
He was similarly inconsistent at times last season but I am going to take a chance by putting him up win only tomorrow at 14-1, with the likes of bet365, Ladbrokes and BetVictor, because that price is too big if returning to his best. I am not going to back him each way because if he is not on a ‘going day’ he could again trail in at the back of the field.
The other big race on day one of Royal Ascot is the King’s Stand Stakes (3.40pm). Highfield Princess is the worthy favourite and the other three horses at the top of the market all have strong claims: Coolangatta, Manaccan and Dramatised.
But my suggestion is to go for value again with TWILIGHT CALLS for the Henry Candy/Ryan Moore trainer/jockey combination. The horse had good excuses for both his poor runs this season – soft ground and a poor scope – and he is unlikely to be a back number at only five-years-old.
He will love both Ascot, where he was second in this very race last year, and the fast ground. Back Twilight Calls each way at 16-1 with bet365, paying five places.
I have already put up Zoffee for the Ascot Stakes (5pm) in my column on Friday and I obviously hope he will run a big race.
Annoyingly, given my earlier ante-post advice, Saga is set to run in the Wolferton Stakes tomorrow (5.35pm) rather than the Royal Hunt Cup handicap on Wednesday but I am not backing him at cramped odds for the former race. I will also leave alone the other two races tomorrow, the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes (2.30pm) and the Group 2 Coventry Stakes (3.05pm) – both are too tricky for me.
I will be back tomorrow with my thoughts on Wednesday’s racing at Royal Ascot and I will be doing a daily column for all five days of the meeting. Good luck to one and all this week.
2023 flat season running total: – 7.3 points.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Pending bets:
1 point each way Twilight Calls at 16-1 for the King’s Stand Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, five places.
2 points win Royal Scotsman at 14-1 for the St James’s Palace Stakes.
1 point each way Chillingham at 22-1 for the Copper Horse Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Zoffee at 14-1 for the Ascot Stakes, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Zoffee at 20-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying ¼ odds, four places.
Settled bets:
1 point each way Royal Scotsman at 17/2 in the 2000 Guineas, 1/5 odds, paying four places. 3rd. + 0.5 points.
1 point each way Call My Bluff at 4-1 in the Chester Cup, paying six places, 1/5th odds. 3rd. – 0.2 points.
1 point each way Safe Voyage at 12-1 in the Victoria Cup, paying seven places, 1/5th odds. 5th. + 1.4 points.
1 point each way Popmaster at 6-1 in the Connect It Utility Services Handicap
Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Royal Acclaim at 6-1 in the Temple Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 point.
1 point each way Sprewell at 10-1 for the Derby paying 1/5 odds, five places. 4th. + 1 point.
1 point each way Arrest at 4-1 for the Derby, paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points. 2 points win Saga at 14-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup.
1 point each way Mokaatil at 12-1 for the Epsom Dash, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Saga at 14-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup. Non Runner. – 2 points.
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