After a summer of discontent, David Cameron must be counting his blessings this morning. He has broken his holiday because Colonel Gaddafi is about to fall. Rebel forces swept into Tripoli’s Green Square overnight and members of the regime were captured as Gaddafi’s militia vanished into the night. Gaddafi’s son Saif al-Islam, who was being groomed as his successor, fell into rebel hands; the International Criminal Court is in touch with his captors. Another Gaddafi family is also understood to have been detained.
Of the Colonel himself, though, there is no sign. Rebel forces are moving to encircle Tripoli, cutting off his line of retreat. Rebel spokesmen told the Today programme that they want to take Gaddafi alive in order to try him. Meanwhile, Gaddafi loyalists are still fighting in pockets of the city and are conducting well planned ambushes. Engagements have apparently increased since first light; the Mad Dog isn’t quite done yet.
NATO sorties have been downscaled and the West’s attention now turns to the aftermath. David Cameron will chair a National Security Council meeting this morning to discuss the peace. The government has been in very close contact with the Transitional National Council (TNC) throughout the campaign and have confidence in the organisation, recognising it as Libya’s formal government.
But there is scepticism elsewhere. The Independent’s Patrick Coburn reports that the rebels’ military arm will now bend a suppliant knee to Benghazi. He adds that rebels from Mistrata say they have no intention of obeying the TNC, a claim also made in the Guardian this morning. The paper goes on to suggest that Mistrata’s civic institutions will also resist the TNC. The unknown character of the various rebel factions, as examined by John R. Bradley for the Spectator, and their aims adds to the uncertainty and, of course, the spectre of Islamism lurks behind these concerns.
So, TNC chairman, Mustafa Abdul Jalil, has his hands full. The indications are that the West, keen to avoid the mistakes made in Iraq and Afghanistan, will encourage the Arab League and the African Union to manage the various Libyan factions (both rebel and loyalists) in post-conflict situation. Western international development budgets will also be used to aid humanitarian efforts and the European Union will involve itself in some capacity, probably with generous trade concessions.
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