There are two high-class chases taking place tomorrow – one at Haydock and the other at Ascot. They will have a bearing on the betting markets for the Ladbrokes King George VI at Kempton on Boxing Day and the Cheltenham Festival. However, neither race this weekend is now an attractive betting proposition because each has attracted just four runners.
I suggested a bet a week ago in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase (Haydock 3 p.m.) at a time when most bookmakers were still offering three places. So I am pleased to see that Corach Rambler, put up each way at 14-1, now only has three rivals tomorrow. However, I am fully aware that he is the lowest rated horse in the race and it is perfectly possible that he could still finish fourth (or indeed not finish at all).
Bravemansgame is the most likely winner, with 6 lbs in hand of the second favourite Protektorat on official figures, but he is now odds on and cannot be backed at current prices.
At Ascot, Shishkin looks likely to be an even shorter priced odds-on favourite in the Grade 2 Nirvana Spa 1965 Chase (1.30 p.m.). If he is at his best, he will be too good for his three rivals of which Pic D’Orhy is likely to prove his toughest opponent. However, once again there is no horse in the race worth backing at the current odds.
Also at Ascot, I was tempted to put up Saint Segal in the Jim Barry Hurst Park Handicap Chase (3.15 p.m.) as he is perfectly capable of reversing the form with Boothill, on better terms, following their run at the track early this month. 5-1 initially seemed attractive each way because Jane Williams’s stable star looked like a Grade 1 Arkle Trophy contender early last season and he can race off a rating of just 136 here in a contest worth more than £65,000 to the winner.
However, I am pretty certain Saint Segal would prefer softer ground and he is also prone to race far too keenly, particularly in small-runner fields. So I will refrain from tipping him for these two reasons and not get too frustrated if he does win.
Instead, I am going to look forward to early December and put up a horse in each of two big handicap chases, one at Aintree and the other at Newbury.
PERCUSSION loves tackling the Grand National fences and has put up three fine performances over them in just over a year. His most recent run was earlier this month when he was a fine second to Geskille in BoyleSports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase.
Percussion has been raised 2 lbs in the official ratings for that run, but I am pretty sure he will be better over the longer trip of the BoyleSports Becher Handicap Chase on December 9. I am also convinced he is a better horse on faster ground and he is unlikely to have to run on heavy ground again at Aintree, as he did just two weeks ago.
Back Percussion each way at 10-1 with bet365, paying four places because his talented trainer, Laura Morgan, has already made it clear that he is an intended runner in the race.
The big handicap chase in just eight days’ time is the Coral Gold Cup, formerly the Hennessy Gold Cup, at Newbury. Three horses are currently vying for favouritism: Complete Unknown, Monbeg Genius and Mahler Mission.
Both Complete Unknown, trained by Paul Nicholls, and Monbeg Genius, trained by Jonjo O’Neill, are much better on soft or heavy ground and different weather forecasts vary on whether they are going to get these conditions.
In any case, I prefer the chances of Mahler Mission who can take another big pot back to Ireland for his connections. Trained by John McConnell, Mahler Mission was putting up a superb performance in the WellChild National Hunt Challenge Cup at the Cheltenham Festival in March, only to come down at the second last when holding a four-length lead. We will never know if he would have won if he had stood up but connections clearly felt that he was ridden too aggressively that day in the three mile six furlong chase for amateur riders.
His regular pilot, Ben Harvey, will be back in the saddle at Newbury and I think he has a huge winning chance if, as expected, he is ridden with more restraint. He will have a lovely weight of 10 stone 10 lbs if the top weight Ahoy Senor takes his chance in the contest.
Back Mahler Mission 2 points win at 8-1 with bet365, SkyBet, Paddy Power or Betfair fixed odds. I will probably go in double-handed in this race next weekend once I have a better idea of what ground conditions to expect.
Once thing is certain, the jumps season is now in full swing with plenty of top-class racing to look forward to before and beyond Christmas Day.
2023-4 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Corach Rambler at 14-1 for the Betfair Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
2 points win Mahler Mission at 8-1 for the Coral Gold Cup.
1 point each way Percussion at 10-1 for the Becher Chase, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Iron Bridge at 16-1 for the Welsh Grand National, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
Settled bets from last week:
1 point each way Fugitif at 11-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. 4th. + 1.75 points.
1 point each way Notlongtillmay at 14-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd. +2.5 points.
2 points win L’Eau Du Sud at 10-1 for the Greatwood Hurdle. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 2.25 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
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