Tonight’s TV clash on the EU referendum is being billed as Boris Johnson being ganged up on by a group of women. True, the former Mayor is the only chap in tonight’s line-up (which will give him an unusual glimpse into what most debates feel like for most women in Westminster most of the time), the others being Nicola Sturgeon, Angela Eagle and Amber Rudd on the Remain side, with Andrea Leadsom and Gisela Stuart joining him to argue for Leave. And it is true that he may feel he has to moderate his debating manner: he probably can’t get away with bluster and charm when faced with the no-nonsense, aggressive Sturgeon and the dry Angela Eagle in particular.
But there is a challenge for Sturgeon and Eagle too. They need to motivate left-wing voters in England to turn out to support Remain, something that Labour politicians are struggling to do. The SNP leader fared well in the debates at the general election, with one of the most popular googled questions being whether it was possible to vote SNP in England. But she also helped the Tories win a majority by scaring voters about the prospect of a Labour-SNP deal. So will she really help motivate Labour-ish types to get out and vote? The First Minister has also spent much of the campaign complaining about the campaign rather than actually campaigning, focusing on what she claims is a repeat of the Project Fear tactics of the Scottish referendum. This could be because she is worried that Project Fear won’t work (though it did in Scotland, if only for a while), or it could be because she is ultimately more interested in a second referendum on independence, and views everything through that prism.
Meanwhile, Labour’s leadership is not exactly shouting and screaming with excitement about the EU referendum, but neither are a number of the party’s MPs. Some of those representing seats that are likely to vote Out have decided to keep a very low profile indeed, fearing that attaching themselves to Remain will be the nail in the coffin of their already rather slim chances in 2020. Others, including those in North East constituencies, know that the way ministers focused on EU state aid rules when responding to the steel crisis has pushed up the Leave vote in their seats.
Perhaps they might be more bullish about upsetting their electorate in this referendum if they didn’t feel so insecure about their party’s overall chances at the next election. And Nicola Sturgeon’s presence in tonight’s debate may not help those MPs either if their constituents already have a sense of resentment about the aftermath of the Scottish referendum. So while Boris may have the most obviously uncomfortable time, his opponents are also facing a very tricky challenge tonight.
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