Sebastian Payne

Tories ahead by 4pts in two new polls — and Farage is on course to win South Thanet

Tories ahead by 4pts in two new polls — and Farage is on course to win South Thanet
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The opinion polls almost veered towards a trend today. ComRes/Daily Mail report in their latest poll that the Conservatives are four points ahead on 36 per cent, while Labour is on 32 per cent. Survation/Daily Mirror also put the Tories four points ahead on 33 per cent and Labour on 29 per cent. Alternatively, the latest YouGov/Sun poll has Labour two points ahead on 35 per cent and Tories on 33 per cent.

With two weeks to go till polling day, it’s still very tight and no one has a notable lead. While the Conservative lead in the ComRes and Survation polls edges outside of the margin of error, the movements in these polls are still within three points. But one thing to note is the difference in the methods used to poll. Survation and YouGov both conducted their polls online and showed the Tories are on 33 per cent while ComRes, a telephone pollster, has them on 36 per cent. Although the leads are differ, it continues a trend that phone polls are more favourable towards the Conservatives.

There is also a new marginal poll out from Survation looking at the race in South Thanet. Commissioned by Ukip donor Alan Bown, the poll shows Nigel Farage is on 39 per cent — nine points ahead of the Conservative candidate Craig Mackinlay. The last Survation poll in South Thanet had Farage eleven points ahead, while Lord Ashcroft and ComRes have suggested the race much closer.

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Whether Farage is actually this far ahead or not, the Survation poll does suggest that Ukip is winning the ground war. Whether it is meeting your candidate, having a knock on the door, reciving a phone call or a leaflet, it appears Farage’s campaign is ahead:

As I described in my profile of the South Thanet, the election is a tightly fought contest between Ukip and the Tories. The Survation poll shows Labour is trailing behind on 26 per cent. Whether Farage wins or not depends on how many of the undecided voters rally behind the Tories or split with Labour.