Tories could delay telling tax credit claimants how much money they’ll lose from cuts

The Tory revolt on tax credits looks likely to dominate this autumn. Many Tories across the party now regard this as conforming to a similar pattern as the 10p tax row under Gordon Brown, and few expect the cuts, which lower the threshold for withdrawing tax credits from £6,420 to £3,850 and speed up the rate of withdrawal as pay rises, to come to fruition in their current form.

There are three camps of Conservatives on tax credits. There’s the large group who think the cuts seriously undermine their claim to be the party of working people and are wrong because they take £1,300 off those on low incomes, and will be altered soon enough. Then there are those who agree with that analysis but who think that the cuts to come in the comprehensive spending review will make the tax credits row look trivial by comparison. And then there are those who really don’t see the problem: one Tory remarked to me at this conference that ‘the cut is only £27 a week, which someone could make up by increasing the number of hours they work’.

The size of the first two groups is sufficient to worry the Treasury. I understand from well-placed sources that ministers have discussed delaying the letters that are due to be sent to claimants informing them of how much money they will lose. The letters were due to start going out in December, but there have been discussions about moving this to January. I understand that no decision has been made yet on this.

Sending out letters in January may slightly delay the influx of panicked constituents into MPs’ surgeries, and therefore delay the influx of panicked MPs into the Treasury. And perhaps it won’t ruin someone’s Christmas by telling them how much money they’ll lose. But January is hardly a happy financial time, particularly for those on low incomes. It would surely be better for the letters to go out as early as possible, so that tax credit recipients have longer to plan their finances.

But even if sending letters out as early as possible may reduce the panic somewhat, this won’t remove the bulk of the opposition from Tory MPs. The measure may have passed in Parliament, but in many ways Parliament isn’t as important as behind-the-scenes meetings (which is a shame), and while Tory conference has gone very well, beneath the surface opposition to these cuts is growing.