Polls have made miserable reading for Jeremy Corbyn ever since he won his first leadership election last year. And the bad news for the Labour leader is that they seem to be getting worse. The latest Ipsos Mori survey out today hands the Tories an 18 point lead, giving them a 47 per cent share of the vote. That’s the largest percentage of voters saying they’d back the Tories since before the 2010 election. It’s also a clear sign that Theresa May’s leadership is going down well with voters. Here are the numbers:
Conservatives: 47% (+7)
Labour: 29% (-5)
Lib Dems: 7% (+1)
Ukip: 6% (-3)
Greens: 4% (-1)
This latest evidence of a post-conference bounce for the Tories echoes an ICM poll out earlier this month, which put the Conservatives 17 points ahead. If those numbers were repeated on election day, as Katy Balls reported, the Tories would win a working majority of 114. But while that would be a big jump on their current majority of 12, today’s Ipsos Mori poll suggests that assessment could be somewhat pessimistic. Instead, the most recent figures suggest the Tories could win a majority of 153 – not far off the territory of Blair’s landslide victory in 1997. Of course, these numbers are hypothetical and voters can be a famously disloyal bunch. But they do make it clear that Theresa May’s honeymoon period, three months on, is continuing in earnest.
It’s not only Labour who have reason to be miserable after reading these figures though. Ukip have had a tumultuous time recently and supporters seem to be voting with their feet. It’s not true (yet) to say they’re abandoning the party in their droves. But that prospect doesn’t seem far off and the recent turmoil involving Diane James’s short-lived reign, as well as that famous altercation and Steven Woolfe’s decision to quit, is certainly starting to bite. So much so, in fact, that if there was an election tomorrow, the Lib Dems would regain their place as the third largest party by voter share – pushing Ukip into fourth place.
Another worrying sign for Ukip is the good feeling among its voters towards Theresa May. Nearly half of Ukip voters said they were satisfied with how the PM was doing. This means that, among the party’s supporters at the last election, May enjoys a net positive approval rating. For the leader of a rival party, this is something of a ringing endorsement for the PM. And it’s also further evidence of the importance of Ukip getting its act together soon and working out a new path under whoever takes charge.
But while these figures are largely doom and gloom for Labour, there are some (small) scraps of good news for Jeremy Corbyn. Theresa May’s approval ratings have dipped slightly by nearly six per cent since last month, and Corbyn is enjoying a honeymoon period in the personal approval stakes, with a 3.5 per cent boost from September. Although given that his net approval rating remains at -24, you probably won’t hear him shouting too loudly about today’s poll and few Labour MPs, thinking ahead to a 2020 general election, are going to find much either to reassure them.
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