Even though there has been some reeling back today from the suggestion that David Cameron is on the brink of wowing his party with a bit of legislative red meat on an EU referendum, it won’t stop Tory backbenchers trying to force the leadership’s position on this matter.
The problem is that Conservative MPs are starting to see themselves as psychic agents. They vote for something that their party doesn’t want to happen and get called a rebel. A few months later, that rebellion becomes official party policy. One rebel joked to me earlier this week that ‘I don’t rebel against my government, I just vote two or three weeks ahead of it’.
This belief has been forged not just by the fuss that the Tory leadership made over the backbench vote in 2011 in which 81 MPs defied the whip to call for a referendum before adopting the promise as official party policy earlier this year, but by the EU budget revolt, which led to David Cameron getting the cut his MPs had called for in the Commons. Though the whips went completely overboard on that vote, Cameron later suggested that his eventual victory in the negotiations was partly down to strong message sent out by Parliament. The recent conservatory rebellion was another example of backbenchers changing official policy: ministers brought out new guidelines within days to assuage MPs’ fears.
All of this means that Tory MPs are likely to look into their crystal balls and decide that seeking alternative methods of getting EU referendum legislation onto the floor of the Commons is, in the long-run, a favour to the Prime Minister. Even if it takes a little rebellion here or there, these psychic backbenchers will predict that a change of tack is on the cards sooner or later.
Whether the Prime Minister has noticed this or not as he does his charm offensive is one thing. But he should keep at those visits to the tearoom, because there’s someone else who has got their eye on the psychic MPs. It’s not Nigel Farage, gunning for a defection, but Ed Miliband, who is so fascinated by the way Conservative backbenchers work that he’s getting pretty good at befriending them. You’d never guess it from the way they yowl and point fingers at him when he attacks their man at PMQs, but the Labour leader speaks to a number of them reasonably regularly, and, as I mentioned earlier this week, makes a habit of nattering to them in the tearoom or at events. He offers to meet up with some of them, not to try to tease out state secrets or work out if some unhappy right-winger is feeling a bit lefty and fancies crossing the floor, but because he’s a friendly chap and wants to know what makes them tick. His personal warmth makes this a great deal easier.
But this also means that Miliband will be able to anticipate where the tide is flowing in the Tory party. Which could mean that he appreciates the political capital that can be made from certain attempts to push the government on some issues – perhaps not Europe, though, as Labour is far from deciding its own position on this.
The problem with the briefings to today’s papers about Cameron’s willingness to bring forward legislation on a referendum is that it makes his MPs very excited. It raises their expectations: they think they are reading the omens, when all that’s happening is what the Lib Dems earlier described as ‘tummy-tickling’. That won’t tickle them, or make Cameron’s job any more peaceful in the long-term, especially if Miliband has worked out what makes Tories tick.
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