Do you understand what David Cameron’s Europe policy is supposed to achieve? If so, you’re way ahead of me. I’ve said before that I think Europe will cripple Cameron unless Ed Miliband gets there first and nothing has happened since to change my mind.
Isabel’s scoop published today, revealing the results of the Tory party’s internal consultation help make the folly of Cameron’s policy even clearer. With some understatement Isabel concludes that the results “underline how big the expectations are on Cameron to bring about big change in Europe”.
Indeed they do. Tory members are telling the Prime Minister that the European parliament should be abolished. This may not be the worst idea in the world but it is one of the most fanciful. More importantly, it demonstrates the lack of perspective or realism within the Conservative movement. If that’s your benchmark for renegotiation then there will be no successful renegotiation.
Then again, since 40 per cent or so of Tory members already want Britain to leave the EU it’s likely a significant percentage of the Tory party don’t want a successful renegotiation. Cameron, oddly, is consulting people who don’t want him to succeed. We might think it odd if the Prime Minister were to canvas Labour party members as part of some particular piece of policy development but when it comes to European issues there is no functional difference between asking Labour supporters to advise the government and asking Conservative supporters. Both wish the Prime Minister to fail.
It is, then, in the interests of Better Off Out Tories to suggest wrecking-ploys that will sink the Prime Minister before he’s even set sail for Brussels. Or, to put it another way, not only is Cameron being sent out to the wicket armed with a broken bat but many of his supporters (and some of his team-mates) are betting on the opposition and wish to see Cameron defeated.
And he will be. Because there it is exceptionally difficult to imagine Cameron returning from any renegotiation discussions armed with an agreement that can placate his internal critics. Europe is more important to them than Cameron’s own future and while they don’t much care for Dave they really hate Brussels. He could, as Isabel says, ‘prevail’ on 75 per cent of points and this still would not be enough.
If anyone thinks that Cameron can secure opt-outs from, say, the Common Agricultural Policy, the Common Fisheries Policy and much else besides then I have a bumper selection of bridges for them to purchase too. Of course many eurosceptics know this and are quite happy about it since freighting the Prime Minister with impossible demands and expectations helps their cause since they’ve no desire to actually see a “successful” renegotiation that would leave David Cameron arguing Britain should remain a member of the European Union. And they don’t want that to happen. Because they have decided they want out and it is hard to imagine what can now change their mind about that.
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