It’s easy to forget that the Budget took place five long months ago when it is still being unpicked and argued over now. The Treasury Select Committee published the responses from the government and the Office for Budget Responsibility to its report on that Budget today, and it includes a curious denial from the Treasury.
Andrew Tyrie and his colleagues on the committee had criticised the amount of pre-briefing and leaking of the budget that took place in the weeks before George Osborne stood up in the Commons, arguing that ‘coalition government is not a justification for budget leaks’. This is what the Treasury said in response:
No Treasury officials, Treasury Ministers or Treasury special advisers briefed the media before Budget day about any of the most important policy announcements: which in this case means policy information regarding tax rates or tax allowances.
The considerable media speculation in the week before the Budget can be explained by two factors. First, the need to agree major Budget measures over a week in advance in order to allow the OBR to certify policy costings. Second, the fact that the Budget policy package needs to be agreed by ministers from both political parties forming the coalition. These factors mean that, compared to previous governments, there are many more people who know the content of the Budget some time in advance. Additionally, the publication of the Coalition’s Programme for Government also means that priorities are spelt out more clearly and therefore media speculation can always be better informed. It is difficult to changes Budget confidentiality practices without altering these two fundamental features of the Coalition Government’s policy framework. HMT will keep all procedures under review in order to minimise the risk of leaks.
Debating who was responsible for leaking the Budget is not a very satisfying way of passing time, as journalists won’t breach their golden rule of protecting their sources. But the problem with those leaks was that though they brought some political gain for the Lib Dems in preventing George Osborne cutting the 50p rate of tax all the way down to 40p, they caused long-term political woe.
When journalists sat down on the Commons press gallery benches on 21 March, they had already written about the headline figures in terms of tax policy before George Osborne had even appeared at the despatch box. What they didn’t know was the detail that quickly became the big story for that day: the pasties, the caravans and the grannies.
Tory MPs frequently complain to me that while the Treasury should have seen these rows coming a mile off, the controversies became bigger and more quickly because they were exposed by the early leaks of other policies. Had details like the rise in the personal tax allowance and the 50p cut been held back to Budget day, those two policies would have made the headlines. Instead, Osborne found these front pages on his desk the following morning. It backfired on the Lib Dems too: the personal tax allowance that they were so proud of and which arguably made the most difference of any measure in the Budget was buried under those pesky pasties.
The leakers might consider being meeker in the run-up to the autumn statement and next year’s Budget. But somehow I suspect that once their blood is up as the Lib Dems and Tories do battle over ideas which could include Nick Clegg’s wealth tax, they might forget anything Andrew Tyrie has said to them and do the same thing all over again.
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