The fittest horse wins the Guineas, the luckiest horse wins the Derby and the best horse wins the St Leger, goes the old saying. But not since Nijinsky in 1970 has any horse won all three. Many of those best qualified, like Mill Reef, have not attempted the feat. Since Nijinsky failed to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe after running in the St Leger many top horses have swerved Britain’s least glamorous Classic for fear of prejudicing their chances in Paris. But the owners of Camelot, impressive winner of last weekend’s 2,000 Guineas for Aidan O’Brien and now favourite for the Derby, are thinking of bidding for the Triple Crown.
That could help make this year one of the most exciting Flat seasons ever. Not only is there that prospect of a Triple Crown bid but on the day Camelot won the crowds cheered an exercise gallop by the mighty Frankel, who resumes his career as a four-year-old still unbeaten. In a few weeks, too, we should be watching at Ascot the extraordinary Australian mare Black Caviar, a sprinter now unbeaten in 20 races.
Fun is guaranteed, but how to make a profit as well? With the indispensable aid, as ever, of Timeform’s Racehorses of 2011 (Portway Press, £79) here goes.
Sometimes you feel the Force is with a yard and this looks to me like bonus season for Roger Charlton. Last year his horses were narrowly defeated in no fewer than five Group One races. This year he began by collecting £1.9 million with Cityscape’s victory in the Dubai Duty Free on World Cup night. Not only did the improving six-year-old break the course record, it also demonstrated what a shrewd move Charlton had made in fostering the career of his young rider James Doyle. The pair collected again on Guineas day when Al Kazeem took the Group 2 Qatar Bloodstock Jockey Club Stakes. He will surely win a Group 1 this year. They look to have a nice filly with Mince, who won a Newbury maiden readily last September, and the sprinter Bated Breath was frequently close up and goes in as number two.
I shared a Newbury table the other day with the ever-charming Philippa and Charlie Hills. Everyone wishes Charlie well in his first full season, especially after the stable’s cruel luck with Gray Pearl in the Guineas. Deputising for father Barry with Ghanaati, Charlie showed he knows how to handle fillies and Timeform agrees his Heyaraat looks the sort to make significant improvement.
For Godolphin Mohammed Al Zarooni has sounded very happy with Swedish Sailor, who should prove a top-class stayer, while the miler Pembrey looks another potential improver.
We need an Irish contingent. I have been much impressed with Ger Lyons’s achievements and I favour anything by Giant’s Causeway, who always imparts his battling spirit, so Pearl Causeway goes into the mix. John Oxx knows how to handle quality and his Akeed Mofeed could make a Classic candidate.
I always learn from listening to John Gosden in the winner’s enclosure. I shall hope to see him there with some of his good three-year-olds, including Thought Worthy, Gallipot and Starboard, the last of whom goes on to the list. Roger Varian started well last year when taking over from Michael Jarvis and should continue prospering with the likes of Aljamaheer and Cameron Highland. I will go for the former.
Successful jumps’ owner Sir Robert Ogden has now switched to the Flat and his Baccarat should be among the prolific Richard Fahey’s winners this year. We need a two-year-old or two and Fahey says that Mirio Bianco is going the right way. Andrew Balding is said to have a really good team of juveniles and so let us add Jim and Fitri Hay’s Melvin the Grate to our list.
On my first day on the Flat this year at Newbury, William Haggas’s Harris Tweed won the 12-furlong Group Three Dubai Duty Free Stakes after which he confessed, ‘I didn’t think he was fit, but maybe with him the trick is not to get him fit but to get him happy.’ William noted that to qualify for the Melbourne Cup you need first of all to win a Group Three race over a mile and a half. ‘The owner doesn’t want to go to Australia but there are plenty of the family who do.’ Since the horse is owned by his Dad, I’ll take that as a hint and add him, too.
And now for the bit I have been postponing. How did we do with the winter Twelve? It was, I am afraid, one of those seasons. Fingal Bay proved as good as I had hoped but missed Cheltenham with an injury. Prince du Beauchene, about whom I had secured 18–1 ante-post, was backed down to favourite for the Grand National and then injured and withdrawn. Four of the twelve never even made it to the racecourse and though five horses won none did so at a working man’s price. For our 28 runs, the return amounted to only £150 for a £10-win stake, a loss of £130. Sorry, but that’s racing. Let’s hope for better luck on the Flat.
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