Horses drawn high had a considerable advantage in the big sprint races at Haydock a year ago and I suspect it will be same again tomorrow, even though the going is much softer than 12 months ago. There could be a particular advantage for front runners if they claim the near-side rail early on and don’t go too fast in order to keep that advantageous position.
There are other complicating factors, however, for punters, notably the ground which, as of this morning was ‘soft, heavy in places’. That’s almost certain to mean there will be several non runners between now and tomorrow afternoon, with horses that prefer good ground kept for another day.
In the Group 2 Betfred Temple Stakes (tomorrow 1.50 p.m.) over five furlongs, the obvious horses to tip on this terrain are Charlie Fellowes’s Vadream, a horse with plenty of top-class form on soft and heavy going, and Adam West’s Live In The Dream, who is the top-rated horse in the race and seems to go on all ground conditions.
However, I prefer the chances of ROGUE LIGHTNING, who is hopefully better drawn than most of his rivals in stall 10. Tom Clover’s charge ran the best race of his career last time out when, in his final run of last season, he was fifth in the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp in October. He was dropped in from his wide draw that day and finished like a train, despite being hampered close home, to be little more than a length behind the winner, the ill-fated Highfield Princess.
Before that Rogue Lightning had run up a string of three victories and he is well up to landing this contest. James Doyle has been booked to ride the four-year-old gelding for the first time and, if the horse improves again this season, he will certainly be competing for lots of the top sprint prizes.
However, since Rogue Lightning’s fitness has to be taken on trust for his seasonal debut, I am going to suggest a 2 points win bet at 5-1 with Ladbrokes, Coral or BetVictor, rather than an each-way play.
I also have a soft spot for Ed Walker’s Makarova – who is a big price at 20-1 with bet365 – but stall 4 is not ideal and so I will leave it as just the one tip in the race.
In the Group 2 Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Sandy Lane Stakes (tomorrow 2.25 p.m.) for three-year-old sprinters over six furlongs, Simon and Ed Crisford’s unbeaten Vandeek is rightfully the short-priced favourite for this £70,000-plus first prize. However, this is his seasonal debut and so I was looking to take him on with an each-way shot at a nice price.
Stuart Williams’ progressive filly Pandora’s Gifthas the highest draw in stall 8 and she has been made scintillating progress on the all weather, winning her last four starts. She was particularly impressive last time out at Chelmsford when landing a listed race with plenty in hand and she deserves her chance at this level.
The 16-1 with bet365 looks to be generous but Pandora’s Gift has no form on grass, let alone on very soft ground. So I am not going to bet in this race after all.
In the Betfred Nifty 50 Hell Nook Handicap (tomorrow, 3.30 p.m.), it is easy to make a case for backing Law Of The Sea who, quite apart from being second in this race a year ago, ran well on his seasonal debut to be third in the Chester Plate earlier this month.
However, he has been found in the market so I won’t be putting him up at 4-1 or less over this two mile trip. At more than twice the price, I will instead be backing EMIYN each way after he put up pretty much a career best to be second to Zoffee in the Chester Cup earlier this month.
That performance can be marked up considerably because the seven-year-old gelding dwelt at the start – far from ideal for a horse that likes to race prominently – and he pulled too hard as well. I admit that Chester, with its tight twists and turns, is clearly his favourite track.
However, I am prepared to take a chance with Emiyn running well here at Haydock too particularly as he will benefit from the rain that has fallen earlier in the week. Back him each way at 9-1 with William Hill, paying four places. SkyBet is paying five places but at shorter odds.
In terms of ante-post betting, I am going to keep my power dry for next weekend’s Betfred Derby at Epsom. Instead, I am going to have an each way play in the Prix du Jockey Club, or ‘French Derby’, at Chantilly.
GHOSTWRITER ran well in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas to be fourth behind Notable Speech when I put him up each way for the race. That was clearly over a trip short of what is likely to prove his best distance and he also clipped heels with another runner early on. So that run, too, can be marked up.
The 10 furlongs of the French classic should prove ideal for Clive Cox’s three-year-old colt and his trainer has plenty of faith that his horse’s best days lie ahead of him. The Aidan O’Brien-trained Diego Velazquez could go off favourite for this race, although the home team of French trainers are sure to have some really classy runners for this too.
On balance, back Ghostwriter each way at 16-1 with SkyBet, paying three places, on the basis that this race has been his target since Newmarket and he could go off shorter than that a week on Sunday, June 2.
There is plenty of top racing in Ireland this weekend but I don’t have a strong fancy for either the Group 1 Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas tomorrow or the Group 1 Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas on Sunday. In high-class races like these, I am always happy simply to enjoy watching them without having a bet.
Pending:
2 points win Rogue Lightning at 5-1 in the Temple Stakes.
1 point each way Emiyn at 9-1 in Nifty 50 Hell Nook Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Ghostwriter at 16-1 in the Prix du Jockey Club, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
Last weekend: – 4 points.
1 point each way Royal Scotsman at 16-1 the Lockinge Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Into Battle at 25-1 in the London Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2024 flat season running total + 7 points.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 15 of the past 17 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 517 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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