The run-up to the Cheltenham Festival is a quiet time for many punters with some of the best horses in the land effectively wrapped-up in cotton wool so as not to sustain an injury that would keep them out of their big-race targets next month. However, there is plenty of competitive racing on offer at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton tomorrow.
The Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Handicap Hurdle (Ascot, 2.25 p.m.) has certainly attracted a decent field of 16 runners, all hoping to land a pot of more than £26,000 for the winner. My preference is for BAD from the in-form Ben Pauling yard. This is a horse that, 11 months ago, was backed into odds of just 5-1 for the fiercely-competitive Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Festival. Those bets, including some significant punts, stayed in the bookmakers’ coffers when Bad’s performance matched his name and he finished a disappointing 13th of the 21 runners.
His four runs since then have been more promising but without requiring a visit to the winner’s enclosure. Two of his last three runs have been in competitive Ascot handicaps, finishing third on both occasions. I am hoping tomorrow’s step up in trip, plus a lovely racing weight of just 10 stones 4 lbs, sees this grey gelding, who is still only five years old, land this decent prize. Back him 1 point each way at 7-1 with SkyBet, paying six places.
There are plenty of dangers, including Monviel who is highly-rated by his trainer Harry Derham. This horse, however, was a distant last of four on his most recent run at Ascot in November when he went off favourite but suffered from an irregular heartbeat and a lost his left-fore shoe. He is clearly much better than that but he is short enough odds at around 6-1 for a horse that needs to bounce back from such a poor run.
The Virgin Bet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Haydock, 3.15 p.m.) is poorly named given that none of the 11 runners has much chance of winning the big Aintree spectacle. Indeed, only five of the runners have an entry in the April 13 contest and the shortest price on any of these horses for the Randox Grand National is 66-1.
I have already put up one horse for the Haydock race tomorrow – Credo each way four places at 14-1 and he is now generally half that price or less. However, he now faces a better level of opposition than I was expecting, notably form the likes of Iron Bridge, Famous Bridge and, in particular, MY SILVER LINING.
In a recent interview, trainer Emma Lavelle said that her eight-year-old was being lined up for the Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Eider Handicap Chase on February 24. However, her grey mare has been diverted from her original target at Newcastle in order to run at Haydock tomorrow.
My Silver Lining, a fine jumper, has been raised only 5 lbs in the ratings for her win in the Wigley Group Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick when she gave her jockey James Best “the best day of my career”, and had Credo more than 13 lengths back in third.
With Cornish-born Best back in the saddle tomorrow, I want to back the improving My Silver Lining too. The suggestion is 1 point each way at 6-1 with bet365, SkyBet, William Hill or BetVictor, all paying four places.
Pending:
1 point each way Bad at 7-1 in the Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Credo at 14-1 in the Grand National Trial, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way My Silver Lining at 6-1 in the Grand National Trial, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Stumptown at 12-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Jetara at 14-1 NRNB for Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Djelo at 20-1 NRNB for the Turners Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Home By The Lee at 28-1 for the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Vanillier at 16-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Panda Boy at 40-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
Settled bets from last weekend:
1 point each way Brentford Hope at 14-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Non Runner. – 2 points.
1 point each way Brentford Hope a 14-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, seven places. Non Runner. Stake returned.
1 point each way Altobelli at 8-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 3.21 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
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