The Grade 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes, first run at Ascot in 1951, has lost some of its lustre in recent years. Many of best middle-distance horses have swerved the race and it has often been left with small fields of only modest quality.
Yet tomorrow’s race (Ascot, 3.40 p.m.) is undoubtedly a contest to savour. It has been dubbed a ‘race for the ages’ with some of the best three-year-old colts, the so-called ‘Classic generation’, taking on their elders for the first time.
The Betfred Derby winner Auguste Rodin and the runner-up King of Steel are at the head of the market and a lot of experts feel that, with the weight for age concession, three-year-olds are the horses to back at this time of year. Auguste Rodin and King of Steel’s rivals tomorrow include Westover, who was third in last year’s Epsom Derby. All three horses have a massive chance of landing the first prize of more than £700,000.
Emily Upjohn, an unlucky runner-up in last year’s Cazoo Oaks, and Hukum, brilliantly handled by Owen Burrows to be still improving at the age of six, both have a big shout too. However, I am backing a horse that is constantly over-priced in these big races.
Step forward PYLEDRIVER who won this race last year at 18-1 when he was the joint outsider of a six-horse field. This horse never gets the credit he deserves possibly because he is from the ‘unfashionable’ training yard of William Muir and Chris Grassick. Yet Pyledriver is officially the best horse in the race, with a rating of 124.
True, this year’s race is much ‘deeper’ that the one of a year ago but, at six, there is evidence that Pyledriver is as good, if not better, than ever. He loves Ascot, goes on all ground conditions and has been trained with this race in mind all season. Back him each way at 13/2 with Sky Bet or BetVictor, both paying four places.
The big handicap tomorrow is the Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Ascot, 3 p.m.) over seven furlongs and I put up Fresh for this race three weeks ago at 12-1. He is now vying for favouritism at around half that price and, even with more places available, that’s on the short side if you are not already on.
I was expecting to suggest Baradar as my second choice in the race. He was 33-1 with several bookies a week ago but, after torrential rain on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, he is now as short at 6-1 and, sadly, that’s no value in a 27-runner race.
Also, he ideally wants the ground either very soft or heavy and, after a couple of likely drying days, he is unlikely to get his perfect conditions. The same comment applies to Safe Voyage, a favourite horse of mine who has dropped to a fair mark but who would also want the ground very soft to be at his best.
Biggles and Northern Express both have good Ascot form as does VAFORTINO, who I am also going to put up in the race, largely because I love having a talented apprentice on a fancied horse in one of these big handicaps. Kaiya Fraser, born and bred in Hackney, has a good winning strike rate of 16 per cent from all his rides this season so he is good value for his 5 lbs allowance. Judging the pace in a big handicap on the straight course at Ascot is not easy for even the most experienced jockey, but I hope that this youngster is up to the job on a horse that likes to race prominently.
Vafortino, who won the 27-runner Victoria Cup at Ascot in May last year over this distance, should have his perfect ground conditions tomorrow on the soft side of good and he remains fairly handicapped off a rating of 102. Take the 10-1 with Sky Bet paying seven places rather than slightly higher odds with other bookies paying less places.
This time next week, Glorious Goodwood will be in full flow and I will be taking a close look at the last two days of this wonderful meeting.
2023 flat season running total: – 19.73 points.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Pending bets:
1 point each way Fresh at 12-1 for the Moet & Chandon International Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, five places.
1 point each way Vafortino at 10-1 for the Moet & Chandon International Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, seven places.
1 point each way Pyledriver at 13/2 for the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, 1/5th odds, four places.
1 point each way Revich at 33-1 for the Golden Mile, paying 1/5th odds, five places.
1 point each way Juan Les Pins at 16-1 for the Stewards’ Cup, paying ¼ odds, four places.
Settled bets:
1 point each way Royal Scotsman at 17/2 in the 2000 Guineas, 1/5 odds, paying four places. 3rd. + 0.5 points.
1 point each way Call My Bluff at 4-1 in the Chester Cup, paying six places, 1/5th odds. 3rd. – 0.2 points.
1 point each way Safe Voyage at 12-1 in the Victoria Cup, paying seven places, 1/5th odds. 5th. + 1.4 points.
1 point each way Popmaster at 6-1 in the Connect It Utility Services Handicap
Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Royal Acclaim at 6-1 in the Temple Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 point.
1 point each way Sprewell at 10-1 for the Derby paying 1/5 odds, five places. 4th. + 1 point.
1 point each way Arrest at 4-1 for the Derby, paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points. 2 points win Saga at 14-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup.
1 point each way Mokaatil at 12-1 for the Epsom Dash, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Saga at 14-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup. Non Runner. – 2 points.
1 point each way Twilight Calls at 16-1 for the King’s Stand Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. 4th but Rule 4 deduction of 15p in the £. + 1.97 points.
2 points win Royal Scotsman at 14-1 for the St James’s Palace Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Zoffee at 14-1 for the Ascot Stakes, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Chillingham at 22-1 for the Copper Horse Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. 4th. + 3.4 points.
1 point each way Tarrabb at 10-1 for the Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. 3rd. + 1 point.
1 point each way Point Lynas at 33-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Atrium at 20-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying 1/5 odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Circle of Fire at 13/2 for the Queen’s Vase, paying 1/5th odds, four places. 4th. + 0.3 points.
2 points win Yibir at 11-1 for the Ascot Gold Cup. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rhoscolyn at 22-1 for the Buckingham Palace Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Physique at 40-1 for the Britannia Stakes, paying 1/4 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Lezoo at 9-1 for the Commonwealth Cup, paying 1/5th odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Chelsea Green at 12-1 for the Sandringham Stakes, paying 1/5 odds, eight places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Pyledriver at 15/2 for the Hardwicke Stakes. 1st but Rule 4 deduction of 30p in the £. + 9.9 points.
1 point each way Apollo One at 16-1 for the Wokingham Stakes, 1/5th odds, paying eight places. 2nd. + 2.2 points.
1 point each way Zoffee at 20-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 points each way Adjuvant at 13/2 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/5th odds, six places. 5th. + 0.3 points.
1 point each way Sprewell at 7-1 for the Irish Derby, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ouzo for the Coral Challenge at 15/2, paying 1/5th odds, five places. 2nd. + 0.5 points.
1 point each way Onesmoothoperator for the Old Newton Cup at 11-1, paying 1/5th odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Sonny Liston at 20-1 for the John Smith’s Cup, paying ¼ odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Majestic 12-1 for the John Smith’s Cup, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Streets of Gold at 8-1 for the Bunbury Cup, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 12-1 for the Bunbury Cup, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
Comments