It’s been all of 49 years since a horse trained in Scotland won the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup, one of the classiest sprint handicaps of the season. However, I am hoping that trend ends tomorrow and that a horse in the care of genial Jim Goldie lands the winning pot of more than £92,000.
Goldie, who trains in Uplawmoor, East Renfrewshire, and who loves to plunder big races in his native Scotland, has two excellent chances of winning the race (Ayr, 3.35 p.m.) that has attracted its usual maximum field of 25 runners. Jordan Electrics is a typical Goldie runner in that he is a veteran, at eight years old, and yet somehow the canny handler has got staggering improvement from the horse.
Jordan Electrics started the season in April off a modest official rating of 72. Twelve runs and seven wins later, he is rated at 102, although he is l lb ‘well in’ tomorrow because he is able to run off his old mark of 101. In fact, he was raised 1 lb by the handicapper after he was second to Jm Jungle in a competitive 22-runner affair at York last month, a race in which the form has worked out well.
With Danny Tudhope booked for the ride and a nice draw in stall 17, back Jordan Electrics each way at 12-1 with Paddy Power, Betfair or Betfred all paying six places, rather than taking the 9-1 with Sky Bet paying a tasty eight places.
However, Goldie’s stable favoured big-race jockey Paul Mulrennan, who presumably had the choice of rides, has opted to be on board AMERICAN AFFAIR, who must carry a 5 lbs penalty for his narrow win in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster just six days ago.
In theory, American Affair is not particularly well handicapped for tomorrow’s race with his penalty – he was raised only 2 lbs by the handicapper for future races – but this four-year-old gelding is another Goldie inmate very much on the up. Goldie, too, has his string in fine form with six winners from 30 runners over the past fortnight for a winning strike rate of 20 per cent.
The price of American Affair is on the skinny side but back him each way at 8-1 with Sky Bet which, as stated already, is paying eight places on this race. My enthusiasm for both Goldie’s runners is enhanced by the going, already ‘good’ and with the best part of two more dry and warm days still to come. Both inmates have a preference for quick ground, which is rare for this autumn meeting.
Frustratingly, I have been waiting to back Kevin Ryan’s Aleezdancer all season for this contest despite a disappointing run in the corresponding race a year ago. However, although he won at York on good ground two runs ago, he is undoubtedly much better with plenty of give so, reluctantly, I will not back him tomorrow.
Orazio was another horse very much on my radar despite starting favourite for countless sprint handicaps over the past two seasons and always disappointing. Trainer Charlie Hills continues to have faith in the horse, however, and he might well outrun his odds even on ground quicker than ideal. He was a big eye-catcher two runs ago on ‘good to firm’ ground when he finished like a train to snatch third in the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot in June.
Typically, Orazio followed up that run when a dismal last of 18 runners in the Moet & Chandon International Stakes over seven furlongs at Ascot in July. However, he has had a long break since then and, as a fresh horse, he is one of the many runners that could spring a surprise tomorrow.
Trainer David Evans’ Rohaan is another horse who looks well handicapped off a mark of 96, given he is no back number aged six and he was rated all of 115 just over two years ago. He goes on pretty much on any ground but he has been backed in from odds of 20-1 over the past fortnight and, at odds of no better than 12-1 now, I am going to leave him alone too.
Finally, I am going to have a second bet on the bet365 Cambridgeshire a week tomorrow, September 28. I have already put up Dual Identity each way at 33-1 and I am going to put up another horse at a decent price.
David O’Meara’s BOPEDRO put up a seasonal best performance six days ago when he was second to Johan in a decent 14-runner handicap at Doncaster. Jack Channon’s gelding got first run on Bopedro that day but the runner-up ran a cracking race off a mark of 93 almost to haul in the winner. He was rated 107 three seasons ago so, considering he retains plenty of ability, his current mark is more than fair.
Bopedro was raised 3lbs by the handicapper for his run last weekend but, since the Cambridgeshire is an early-closing race, he can race off his old mark in eight days’ time. With some rain forecast, it’s reassuring that this horse is not good-ground dependent. Furthermore, he also ran a fine race in the Cambridgeshire a year ago when he was third to Astro King off a rating of 103 after he had anything but a clear run.
All in all, the 20-1 offered by Sky Bet five places is too big so back him now each way on those terms. Yes, there will be more places on offer in a week’s time but the 20-1 will surely have evaporated. Here’s hoping both Dual Identity and Bopedro line up at Newmarket and with a favourable high draw too – it’s mighty hard to win from a single-figure berth.
Pending:
1 point each way Jordan Electrics at 12-1 forthe Ayr Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way American Affair at 8-1 forthe Ayr Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 8 places.
1 point each way Bopedro at 20-1 forthe Cambridgeshire, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dual Identity at 33-1 forthe Cambridgeshire, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Premiere Ligne at 33-1 for the Cesarewitch, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Al Riffa at 14-1 for the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe, paying 1/5th odd, 3 places.
Last weekend: – 1.8 points.
1 point each way Rumstar at 16-1 forthe Portland Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. 5th. + 2.2 points.
1 point each way Bergerac at 14-1 forthe Portland Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced (6th). – 2 points.
1 point each way Deira Mile at 14-1 forthe St Leger, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced (4th, demoted from 3rd by the stewards). – 2 points.
2024 flat season running total + 6.8 points.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
- My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 15 of the past 17 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 517 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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