The two big races tomorrow, the BoyleSports Becher Chase at Aintree and the Betfair Tingle Creek Chase, could hardly be more different contests. The former is a 12-runner competitive handicap run over three miles and two furlongs on the Grand National course, the latter is an eight-runner Grade 1 race, with all the horses running off the same weight, over a shade under two miles.
The Becher (Aintree 2.07 p.m.) is a keen betting contest, while the Tingle Creek (Sandown, 3p.m.) has an odds-on favourite in Jonbon, who has never been out of the first two in 18 runs and, given his consistency, it is difficult to find each-way value elsewhere in the field.
I have already put up one horse, Gaboriot, for the Becher. Those odds of 10-1 four places look tasty now but we have been here before, with a double-figure odds in the bag, and the horse has failed to land the spoils: most recently with Broadway Boy, brave though he was in defeat, in last week’s Coral Gold Cup.
Gaboriot has plenty in his favour and is fine on soft ground but, with more rain forecast, it could easily be proper heavy ground by the off which makes most races more of a lottery. I rarely lay horses on the exchanges but I may well lay the favourite, King Turgeon, who is as short as 3-1. I just can’t see him being suited by a slog in the mud over this distance even though he was running on well when landing the Grand Sefton over this course last month. However, that race was over five furlongs shorter that tomorrow’s trip and on much quicker crowd. I would be fairly confident Gaboriot, who was third in the Grand Sefton on his seasonal debut, can reverse the form tomorrow.
With the likelihood of bottomless ground tomorrow, I was tempted to go in double-handed with Chambard, last year’s winner on heavy ground and not much higher in the official ratings a year on. His trainer, Venetia Williams, is banging in the winners and I am not put off by his advanced years – he will be 13 on New Year’s Day.
However, last year Chambard had enjoyed a solid prep race before the Becher whereas this year his fitness has to be taken on trust after a 270-day break. He can go well fresh but, on balance, I will look elsewhere.
Chianti Classico and Cruz Control both handle plenty of cut but, for my second play in the race, would rather back IRON BRIDGE. Jonjo and A.J. ONeill’s eight-year-old gelding was second, albeit well beaten, in the Coral Welsh National almost a year ago before being third in the Virgin Bet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at Haydock.
His form then tailed off towards the end of the season but his comeback run at Carlisle was respectable last month and he can do some damage this season off an official mark of just 136 – that’s 6 lbs lower than 12 months ago. Bottomless ground will hold no fears for him. He is a top priced 8-1 but instead take the 15-2 with SkyBet each way, paying a super-generous five places in a 12-runner race.
As already indicated, I can’t find an each-way bet to put up against Jonbon in the Tingle Creek. On official ratings, he should win this race for the second year running. On official ratings too, Edwardstone and Boothill should give him most to do but the former is past his best and the latter has never struck me as a horse good enough to win a Grade 1.
Of the younger horses, Henry De Bromhead’s Quilixious could prove to be a danger to the favourite. However, he is officially rated fully 15 lbs inferior to Jonbon and only a 1 lb or two higher than three other rivals in the field, namely JPR One, Master Chewy and Solness. So, for me, this is a race to watch and enjoy.
Rather than put up a half-hearted fancy elsewhere tomorrow, I prefer to put up an ante-post wager for next weekend. Three horses are currently vying for favouritism in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham on 14 December.
One of them, Il Ridoto, won the Paddy Power Gold Cup at the track last month but he is up 8 lbs for that win and I think that will stop him following up. Course specialist Fugitif is another well-backed horse but, according to his trainer Richard Hobson, he may wait for another contest at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.
My preference is for MADARA who, if he lines up, would only be having his second run for Dan Skelton after running well to be fourth in the Paddy Power. He proved that day that he says two and a half miles. Still only five years old, he can improve on that run and so take the 8-1 with bet365, paying four places.
Skelton has another possible runner in the race in the form of Midnight River but he seems to be a shadow of the horse that was when winning at Aintree in April last year. If Skelton does run two in the race, which is unlikely, I would expect his brother Harry to choose to ride Madara not Midnight River. After two more seconds last weekend in big races, I am fully aware this column needs a winner and, hopefully, the Becher Chase today can provide it.
Pending:
1 point each way Gaboriot at 10-1 for the Becher Chase, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Iron Bridge at 15-2 for the Becher Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point way Madara at 8-1 for the December Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Monbeg Genius at 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
Last weekend: – 2.1 points.
1 point each way Ooh Betty at 14-1 for the Gerry Fielden, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Queens Gamble at 7-1 for the Gerry Fielden, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.2nd. + 0.4 points.
1 point each way Bowtogreatness at 11-2 for the Rehearsal Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Broadway Boy at 10-1 for the Coral Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd. + 1.5 points.
2024-5 jump season running total: – 15.3 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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