Two coming revolutions: in election tactics, and in Whitehall

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[/audioplayer]This is a unique moment in British politics. All three major parties have a realistic prospect of being in power after the next election, but they are all acutely aware that they’re won’t be swept to power. Success will have to be eked out constituency by constituency — so the expensive business of polling specific constituencies, normally left until much closer to the election, is under way for all three. And that’s not all.

The Liberal Democrats know that an election that followed the national swing would be a disaster for them. So they are busy digging in at each of the 57 seats they hold. They’ve drawn up a league table of their MPs based on how much canvassing they do, and those who slip into the bottom half are getting a call from Nick Clegg telling them to up their game. Combine this with the Liberal Democrats adopting the American practice of pork barrel politics, funnelling government favours to key seats, and you can see how — contrary to popular expectations — the party can hold on to the majority of its MPs.

The Tories, for their part, are determined to wring every last drop of advantage out of being the incumbents. In the 48 most marginal seats they are defending, Conservative campaign headquarters is paying for a steady stream of leaflets touting the local MP’s achievements. The aim is to establish the MP so strongly that he can outperform the national campaign. And the early signs are that it’s working. Tory MPs in these seats are considerably more confident about their own prospects than they were a year ago.

The Tories are also using the levers of national government to promote their record in office.