Two tips for the Irish Grand National

Irishman Martin Brassil is a brilliant target trainer but even he has to handle the ups and downs that come with participating in the so-called Sport of Kings. Horse racing, particularly at the highest level, can bring despair as well as joy as Brassil experienced at last week’s Cheltenham Festival when he had three fancied runners over the three days.

Built by Ballymore was a disappointing 4-1 favourite when he came only 14th of the 21 runners in the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle, Fastorslow unseated his rider when well-fancied for the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup and, worst of all, Ose Partir, was brought down and, sadly, fatally injured in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.

I expect normal service to be restored, however, over the coming weeks when Brassil aims some of his best staying handicap chasers at big prizes. I have already tipped Panda Boy for Aintree’s Randox Grand National at 40-1 and he is now a top priced 12-1 for the race despite not being guaranteed to make the cut. Panda Boy may yet be joined by his stablemate, Longhouse Poet, at Aintree although the latter has been disappointing this season and is not a certain starter.

However, the inmate of Brassil’s that I am keen to back for the BoyleSports Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday (1 April) is DESERTMORE HOUSE. This likeable nine-year-old gelding ticks a lot the right boxes for the race and I have no doubt that he will be suited by the step up in trip.

I particularly liked the way he won going away when triumphing in the Guinness Kerry National at Listowel in September last year and I am sure the astute Brassil has had the Irish Grand National in mind for him ever since.

Yes, Desertmore House goes to Fairyhouse off a 9 lbs higher handicap mark but I hope that he might still prevail, although he would not want the ground to be bottomless as he prefers a better surface.

Sadly, his odds have all but halved since the weights were announced for the Fairyhouse marathon earlier this week but nevertheless back him each way at 12-1 with Coral, paying four places. If you prefer to wait until the day, you will get more places but I doubt that he will still be 12-1.

However, I want to go into this race double handed with a horse who is very much a favourite of mine. ANY SECOND NOW is – with the exception of the Queen Mother’s Devon Loch in 1956 – probably the unluckiest horse never to win the Aintree Grand National.

Any Second Now was trained for the race in 2020 before the Covid outbreak meant it was cancelled that year, he very badly hampered by a faller in 2021 yet still finished third and he was second in the race in 2022. Admittedly, last year, aged 11 and off a lofty rating of 167, he failed to fire.

In this year’s Irish equivalent, however, he can race off a rating of just 140 after some lowly finishes this campaign. Three miles six furlongs might just be his optimum trip and he goes on all ground so, even aged 12, I am happy to back him each way at 20-1, once again with Coral, paying four places.

Unsurprisingly, a horse from the all-conquering Willie Mullins yard is at the head of the market for the Irish Grand National. Nick Rockett is a lightly-raced, progressive, seven-year-old gelding who could go on to better things but at odds of 4-1 in a likely huge field, he is not for me.

The Randox Topham Handicap Chase, run the day before the Aintree Grand National and over its brush fences, is a race I love to watch and to bet in. Normally, I look for horses that have good form over the unique fences but those that ran well in last year’s Topham have largely run poorly this season.

I would prefer to take a chance with a horse that looks to have been kept fresh for the race: YOUR DARLING. It’s a long time – more than four years to be accurate – since trainer Henrietta Knight compared this horse to her three-times Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Best Mate. That was after Young Darling dotted up in his racecourse debut at Newbury.

A lot of water had flowed under the bridge since then and the horse has failed to live up to his early promise. However, trainer Ben Pauling may have finally found the answer to getting the best out of Your Darling: that is to run him extremely infrequently because he is clearly best fresh.

In fact, Your Darling has not run since winning a handicap chase at Ascot by nine lengths in late November off a lowly mark of 128. Up now to a rating of 137, he may still have been let in off a nice mark for the Topham. He is a quirky horse and not one for the mortgage but back him each way at 16-1 with SkyBet, Paddy Power and Betfair, all offering five places.

After a successful Cheltenham Festival tipping wise and with some nice prices already in the bag about three horses for the Randox Grand National on 13 April, I am happy to have a quiet time on the betting front this weekend.

Nothing really catches my eye at Newbury tomorrow and, although it is nice to see the return of the flat season at Doncaster, I won’t be putting up any bets on the level for several weeks because it is so hard to know which stables have their horses fit and which do not.

Pending:

1 point each way Desertmore House at 12-1 for the Irish Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.

1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Irish Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.

1 point each way Your Darling at 16-1 for the Topham Chase, 1/5^th odds, 5 places.

1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5^th odds, 5 places.

1 point each way Vanillier at 16-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5^th odds, 5 places.

1 point each way Panda Boy at 40-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5^th odds, 5 places.

Settled bets from last Friday (Gold Cup day)

1 point each way Faivoir at 12-1 for the County Hurdle, paying 1/5^th odds, 6 places. 6^th (but paid only five places due to non runners). – 2 points.

1 point each way Bravemansgame at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5^th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points. 

1 point each way Corach Rambler at 18-1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5^th odds, 3 places. 3^rd. +2.6 points.

2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 40.61 points.

2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.

2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.

My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).