I am slightly surprised at the way that bookmakers have priced up Monday’s Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase (Cheltenham 2.05 p.m.). Stage Star is a lovely young horse who has, with the exception of a flop at Aintree in April at the end of a long season, improved with every race over the past year. As a result, he is rightly vying for favouritism with Allaho for the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March.
However, the New Year’s Day contest is a handicap and he must give the best part of two stones to most of his rivals, some of them pretty decent in their own right. I can see why he might be edging favouritism in three days’ time but odds of evens or, in some cases, odds on seem far too short.
In any case, will Paul Nicholls really want to run him off 12 stone on bottomless ground, just two months ahead of the Festival, if the going deteriorates to ‘heavy’ as is likely if the weather forecast is correct?
There are currently eight horses declared for the race but the Willie Mullins gelding, Meetingofthewaters, has virtually no chance of running after his successful exertions in Ireland two days ago. So I am happy to take on Stage Star with a couple of rivals that are both in good form, that handle plenty of cut and that have rock solid course and distance performances in the bag.
The first is SHAKEM UP’ARRY representing the Ben Pauling yard. I thought this nine-year-old gelding ran a cracker when sixth at Newbury last time out in the Coral Gold Cup, despite making a bad mistake at the second fence and then clearly running like a ‘non-stayer’ over the trip of well over three miles.
This shorter distance of two and a half miles-plus will be just up his street as will the softer ground. He is back down to a mark of 139, the same that he raced off in March at the Festival when a fine third Seddon in the Magners Plate Handicap Chase. Back him 1 point each way at 7-1, only two places, with bet365.
I am also keen to back our old friend FRERO BANBOU in the same race. Venetia Williams’ consistent gelding was third in the Virgin Bet December Gold Cup Handicap Chase earlier this month but seems to take his racing well. This would be his third race in under a month if, as I hope, he lines up on Monday. Back him 1 point each way at 9-1 with bet365, again paying two places.
Richmond Lake is an improving young chaser who has won his last two races, both on heavy ground, and he definitely has a ‘shout’ in the race. He could emerge as the best horse in Donald McCain’s yard but he does not have any form at the track. However, if the first two in the betting fill the first two places, it will be a four-point loss on the race.
No horse makes any appeal as a bet this weekend and so it is time to look ahead to the Randox Grand National with a horse that has the right qualities for the race and that is being targeted at the contest. Step forward the hugely likeable MAHLER MISSION.
John McConnell’s gelding, who will turn eight years old in three days’ time, was my tip for the Coral Gold Cup at the start of this month. He jumped and travelled sweetly throughout the race and looked like the winner going to the second last, only to be worn down by a late charge from Jamie Snowden’s Datsalrightgino.
That was still a great run especially since the trainer’s string were out of form at the time, the horse had suffered an interrupted preparation for the race and Mahler Mission lost his two front shoes during the race. McConnell decided soon after that race that his charge would be specifically trained for Aintree on 13 April. So I expect his new handicap mark of 155 to be protected until the National weights are published in mid-February.
There will be plenty of dangers emerging over the next three months but I think that this bold jumper ticks a lot of boxes for the race. I can see him being ridden close to the pace and I love the fact that he handles all ground from ‘good to soft’ to ‘heavy’ (with guaranteed watering, if necessary for horse safety reasons, the ground is sure to ride ‘good to soft’ or softer on the day).
Back Mahler Mission 1 point each way at 20-1 with Betfred, paying five places. I put up Corach Rambler in this column for the Grand National at 20-1 a couple of months before the big race and I am hoping Mahler Mission will run an equally big race in less than four months’ time.
In the meantime, enjoy the wonderful variety of racing that is on offer over the weekend and New Year.
2023-4 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Shakem Up’Arry at 7-1 for the New Year’s Day Handicap Chase, paying ¼ odds, each way.
1 point each way Frero Banbou at 9-1 for the New Year’s Day Handicap Chase, paying ¼ odds, each way.
1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Home By the Lee at 28-1 for the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, five places.
Settled bets from last week:
1 point each way Cooper’s Cross at 12-1 for the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places. Unplaced.
1 point each way Cooper’s Cross at 12-1 for the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Altobelli at 12-1 in the Betfair Exchange Hurdle, paying ¼ odds, four places. 3rd + 2 points.
1 pointe each way Es Perfecto at 10-1 in the Ladbrokes Boost Your Odds On Racing Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places. 3rd + 1 point.
1 point each way Iron Bridge at 16-1 for the Welsh Grand National, paying ¼ odds, four places. 2nd. + 3 points.
2 points win Super Survivor at 8-1 for the Welsh Grand National. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: – 7.05 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
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