Ukip now 12pts ahead of Tories in Rochester and Strood, but what about next year?

Ukip is still on track to pound the Tories into second place in the Rochester and Strood by-election, but not necessarily at next year’s general election, according to a new poll from Lord Ashcroft. The latest polling (see chart above) puts Tory defector Mark Reckless on 44 percent, the Conservatives on 32 percent, Labour on 17 percent and the Lib Dems on 2 percent.

Although Reckless looks set to win back the seat he once held as a Conservative next Thursday, this doesn’t mean the same will happen at the general election. According to Ashcroft’s poll, 36 percent of those who named a preference said they would vote Conservative in 2015 — up four points from the by-election snapshot — 35 percent for Ukip and 21 percent Labour. 72 percent of Ukip’s Rochester by-election voters said they would stay with them next year while 11 per cent said they would switch to the Tories.

A significant chunk of Rochester’s voters are on side with David Cameron too, with 27 percent stating they are satisfied with him as Prime Minister and another 35 percent would prefer to see him in No.10 over Ed Miliband, including just over half of Ukip voters.

Similar to all by-election campaigns, the voters of Rochester and Strood have been inundated by the parties: 84 percent of voters said they had heard from the Ukip compared to 81 percent from the Conservatives. The other two parties fair less well, a sign they are not putting in so much effort: 63 percent have heard from Labour and 24 per cent from the Lib Dems.

As Isabel described earlier, the Prime Minister popped down to Kent today to ensure the TV viewers know he is taking this election very seriously indeed — despite his party’s continual lag in the polls. With nine days to go until Rochester decides if Ukip will gain a second MP, the campaign is showing no signs of slowing down. In response the Tories’ online attack ad over Reckless’ flip flopping, Ukip has hit back with a timely video on the European Arrest Warrant shambles in the Commons yesterday. Their riposte to ‘don’t be Reckless with your vote’ is ‘don’t trust the Tories’.