James Forsyth James Forsyth

Ukip, the gateway drug — how Cameron can exploit Nigel Farage

Cameron must appeal not to the party’s leadership but to its voters

David Cameron heads to the Tory conference in Manchester in a far better position than he would have dared hope a year ago. Labour’s opinion poll lead is shrinking, the economy is finally recovering and Ed Miliband is running out of time to persuade the country that he’s a potential Prime Minister. Ordinarily, the Tory tribe would be in high spirits — but there is a spectre haunting this conference, which almost no one dares name: Ukip. Nigel Farage’s insurgent party is fast becoming an existential threat to the Tory party.

The right in Britain is fractured — and fractured movements don’t win elections. In the 1980s, Margaret Thatcher romped to victory against a left that was split between Labour and the SDP. Now the left is united, with Labour welcoming back left- leaning Liberal Democrat supporters who have quit in disgust at the coalition. The 2015 election will pit a united left against a divided right.

This is, in no small part, the Prime Minister’s fault. When Cameron became leader in 2005, he calculated that the right of the party had nowhere to go. He husky-hugged and assumed that, however much those on the right grumbled, they would still vote Tory. After he was forced into coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Cameron compounded the problem by ignoring those in his party whom he has never felt comfortable with. The result: more and more support seeping away to Ukip. In the last 18 months or so, Cameron has begun to address the problem. But these efforts have yet to bear fruit.

Unless Cameron can think of a way to solve the Ukip problem, it will be nigh-on impossible for him to win a majority in 2015 — or any other general election. Ukip will not win many seats, but it is eating into the Tory vote in the most vulnerable areas.

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