Overnight, the news of Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles on Russian soil has been sinking in. Reports suggest that Kyiv is planning to use US-made ATACMS missiles for the first time in the coming days. We won’t know for sure until after the attack has taken place though – speaking at a press conference last night, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the news but said ‘strikes are not carried out with words. Such things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves.’
The White House was reportedly persuaded to grant Ukraine permission to use the missiles following the news that approximately 10,000 North Korean troops have been sent by Pyongyang to train and fight alongside Putin’s army. The majority of them are gathering in the region of Kursk in preparation for a counteroffensive to try and snatch back the slivers of land Ukrainian troops seized and managed to hold on to since August. It has been assumed by some that it is here Kyiv will use the first of its ATACMS.
Zelensky’s team first began lobbying Biden for American permission to use long-range missiles on Russian territory at the end of August. The Ukrainian president then made a fruitless trip to Washington in September to try and persuade Biden in person. Reports suggest the British and French were happy for Kyiv to use their donated SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory earlier in the Autumn, but were hesitant to give the green light without America’s blessing. It remains unclear when they might also now give Ukraine formal permission – if they haven’t already.
Over in Russia, the official response from the Kremlin so far has been fairly muted. The news barely made any of the newspaper front pages this morning. Indeed, the Russian state press appears more concerned with the Ukrainian drone attack with happened overnight. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, 59 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Russia, including two which made it as far as the Moscow region. The authorities in Belgorod, also targeted last night, have reportedly transferred 1,000 drone detectors as an extra precaution.
Shortly after the news about the long-range missiles broke, the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, met with the press to remind them that Putin ‘has spoke out on this matter’. According to the Russian President, this scenario would, Zakharova said, mean that ‘Nato countries are at war with Russia’. In giving Ukraine permission to use long-range missiles on Russian soil, Biden is directly testing Putin’s red lines – something the Russian president will undoubtedly feel compelled to respond to.
In Russia’s border regions, the response has been considerably more anxious. ATACMS missiles have a range of 180 miles – far enough to reach a number of prominent Russian cities, including Krasnodar, Smolensky, Bryansk and Rostov-on-Don. According to Verstka, the independent Russian-language Telegram channel, some officials in the Voronezh region had initially responded by wanting to pack up and evacuate relatives ‘somewhere far away’. After a while, the officials said, they calmed down enough to start looking at maps of potential military targets. One high-ranking Voronezh official granted anonymity sanguinely responded to Verstka’s questions: ‘What terrible thing have we not seen yet? We need to take care of our nerves, they will come in handy. Go to sleep.’
Biden granted Kyiv permission to use these weapons with just two months to go before he hands over the White House keys to Donald Trump. American officials are believed to think there is little chance being able to use ATACMS on Russian territory will significantly change the course of the war. Nevertheless, there is every possibility Trump will repeal the decision – indeed, his camp has already accused Biden of trying to ‘escalate’ the conflict. As such, Zelensky will be aware he may be on borrowed time – expect Ukraine to make the most of this new power.
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