The presence of drones over the Kremlin earlier this week was reported widely as the first attack on Moscow since the Napoleonic era: after an explosion, Russian officials claimed that this was an attempt on the life of a suddenly vulnerable Vladimir Putin. But it’s actually more akin to 1987, when an amateur German pilot landed on a bridge near Red Square, fooling the Soviet air defence system. Mathias Rust said he’d gone to Moscow on a mission of peace – but ended up humiliating the communist military leadership, who had to resign one after another. This – the humiliation – is what Ukrainians plan to repeat during the upcoming victory parade in the Russian capital.
Two drones were filmed flying over the Senate Palace of the Kremlin: one crashed into the dome, hence the explosion. Six more drones have been found in the capital and its surrounding areas in the last two weeks. The Ukrainian government denied involvement, as per usual. But I can tell you that pretty much none of us believe the denial. It all makes perfect strategic sense. Ukraine has been on the counter-attack deep into Russia with at least 30 targets attacked by drones in recent months: military warehouses, airfields, oil depots and railway junctions were hit, according to widespread reports. The below map shows the strikes.
Denial in Kyiv about the Kremlin drones could be partially true – the government may not have been involved. Hitting Moscow would mean (to put it mildly) tension with Ukraine’s allies, who don’t want to provoke Putin. It was not – as Moscow claimed – a ‘terrorist’ attempt to kill Putin, who was not even at the Kremlin. But to understand the Ukraine war, it’s important to understand that there is no top-down, command-and-control model from Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukrainians are doing things, often extraordinary things, on their own initiative.
Take Volodymyr Yatsenko, a Ukrainian businessman who founded Monobank and makes ‘Dovbush T10’ drones. Last month, he announced a 20 million hryvnias (£433,000) reward for any Ukrainian who could land a drone on Red Square on 9 May. The prize will be split between the winning drone’s manufacturer and operator.
The date is important: Moscow’s Victory Parade is ideologically the country’s most important event. Tanks, which will move across Red Square bearing slogans such as ‘We can do it again’, are designed to show the greatness and invincibility of Putin’s empire to the electorate – and the West. As a counter to this, Yatsenko’s competition had one requirement: the drone must carry a Ukrainian slogan on its wings like ‘Slava Ukraini’, ‘Glory to Heroes’, etc. So it’s about military trolling. What would be more humiliating for Putin than a Ukrainian drone landing right in front of his nose on Victory Day?
Russian leadership, of course, is aware of this contest – and of the potential humiliation it could cause. In the past, Putin has quite literally sent aircraft (which spray reactant chemical agents into thick clouds which, in turn, make the clouds release their rain early), to make sure it doesn’t rain on this day. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he deployed the same technology this year: stopping Ukrainian drone-competition participants will be an imperative. All drone flights have been banned in St. Petersburg and Moscow. Anti-drone defence systems (typically the Pantsir-S1) have been installed on the roofs in Moscow and near Putin’s residences. Of course, Putin can’t protect every parade (Russia is normally full of them) so such events have been cancelled in at least 21 cities ‘for security reasons’. A large concentration of equipment and military personnel in the city centres would be a temptation for Kyiv. But to call off Moscow’s Victory Day celebrations would mean acknowledging that Ukraine somehow has the power to, figuratively, rain on Russia’s parade.
The Kremlin drone stunt showed that even here, one of the most protected places in Russia which is chock-full of radar systems and air defence missiles, Ukrainian drones can hover above Putin’s head. In at least two cases, destroyed drones found in the Moscow area were identified as UJ-22 Airborne UAVs, which are manufactured by the Ukrainian company Ukrjet. When controlled by an operator directly, the range of such a drone is up to 60 miles. But the device can fly autonomously at long distances – up to 500 miles – using a pre-planned flight route.
So Ukraine is now making drones with as much enthusiasm as wartime Britain made Spitfires. The Ukrainian government has licensed manufacturers to supply their UAVs straight to the frontline, officially avoiding bureaucratic red tape. The percentage of profit that private companies are allowed to make from these drones was increased from 1 per cent to 25 per cent, and more than 10,000 drone operators were trained to fly them. Ukraine has labelled the project ‘army of drones’.
The generous reward for ruining Moscow’s parade will surely prompt more businesses to try their luck. The Kremlin should expect to see more drones both before and on 9 May: a great many Ukrainians would love to go down in history as the one who publicly mocked Putin on Victory Day.
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