James Forsyth

US primary contests now too close to call

US primary contests now too close to call
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If you want a feel for how dramatically both the Republican and Democratic primary races have tightened in the US, consider this:

“The only candidate in either party with a lead outside of the margin of error in the big 3 states (Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina) is Republican Mike Huckabee who sports a double-digit lead over his nearest competitor. No Democrat has a lead outside the margin of error in those three states and the Republican races in both New Hampshire and South Carolina are also margin-of-error close.”

The importance of these early states in the process can not be over-stated and the worry for Hillary has to be that Obama has removed her firewall in New Hampshire. He’s now close enough that momentum from a win in Iowa, could carry him over the top there as well. If Hillary goes 0 for 2 in the first two contests, then anything could happen.

The big question on the Republican side is has Huckabee peaked too early. He is now going to find his past record and his statements under far more scrutiny than ever before. Two of his opponents, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, need to knock him out of the running to have a realistic chance so expect things to get brutal very soon.   

Written byJames Forsyth

James Forsyth is Political Editor of the Spectator. He is also a columnist in The Sun.

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