Varadkar’s gamble

‘The government has relished wearing the green jersey on Brexit and standing up to the British with the help of the European Union — and been aware of the political benefits of doing so,’ thundered Pat Leahy in the Irish Times last week. ‘But now the pitfalls begin to emerge from the fog.’

Leo Varadkar gambled on the British government either cancelling Brexit or getting roped in by the backstop to accept Brexit in name only. The Taoiseach lost that gamble — and his strategy now lies in tatters.

Since mid-2017, when Varadkar took office, teaming up with Brussels to take a maximalist, ultra-legalistic approach to the Irish border, his domestic commentariat has overwhelmingly backed him. The opportunity to exploit Theresa May’s reliance on the DUP, with tiny Ireland making life difficult for the mighty Brits, was just too tempting to miss.

There was a cynical belief, in the political saloons of both Dublin and Brussels, that if fears about a return to the Troubles were whipped up enough, the biggest expression of democracy in British history could be thwarted. That, or the Brits might be goaded into staying in the customs union — diverting billions each year to Brussels, as UK consumers and businesses kept paying the EU’s common external tariff on non-EU imports.

But with Boris Johnson heading for Downing Street, there’s a growing realisation that no deal could actually happen — and that it would be terrible for Ireland. Half the Republic’s beef, timber and construction material exports are sold in the UK, and over two-thirds of goods exporters use Britain as a ‘land bridge’ — crossing the Irish Sea, then travelling by road to eastern UK ports, heading for the EU and global markets.

With default EU intransigence, however, and Johnson on a ‘do or die’ mission to take Britain out of the EU on 31 October ‘come what may’, the ‘crash-out’ Brexit which the Irish fear is now on the cards.