Matthew Lynn Matthew Lynn

Von der Leyen is the real winner of the German elections

A weaker chancellor means a more powerful EU

(Getty)

The bald guy who leads the Social Democrats. The earnest looking Green lady. Or perhaps the guy in the charcoal-grey suit who leads the oddly named Free Democrats — free from what exactly? — who may end up picking the next chancellor. Lots of commentators will argue for a long time about who is the real winner of the German elections. But in fact there can be no real dispute about who has come out in a far stronger position. The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.

A power vacuum in Berlin will be filled by a hyper-active, ambitious Commission

There are two reasons for this. First, she is now by far the most powerful German politician. Whoever emerges as the new chancellor, he or she (although it will probably be a he, given the relatively disappointing performance of the Greens and their leader Annalena Baerbock) will hardly have a thumping mandate. No one won more than 25 per cent of the vote. Whoever it turns out to be will have spent months haggling for the job, bogged down in compromises and presiding over a three-party coalition made up of people who hate each other. They will never be more than one crisis away from the exit. It will make a painful contrast with the decisive EU leader, able to launch new initiatives whenever she feels like it and with a secure mandate for the next few years. Don’t be surprised if von der Leyen makes a dramatic return as the saviour of the Christian Democrats in four years time.

Next, a power vacuum in Berlin will be filled by a hyper-active, ambitious Commission, encouraged by President Macron in France, and Prime Minister Draghi in Italy, both of whom are enthusiastic federalists. Although no one has bothered to consult any electorates or tried changing any of the treaties, the EU has quietly been increasing its powers at a rate that has not been witnessed since it launched the single currency.

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