Voting begins – but the SNP leadership race is still wide open

After a tumultuous two weeks, voting is now open for the SNP leadership elections until 27 March. But are members any closer to knowing who they’ll vote for?

At the Glasgow hustings, Michael Russell, president of the SNP, urged members to get their votes in as soon as possible. But while the Scottish National party appears keen to see the majority of votes cast within the next few days, it is worthwhile remembering just how many ‘undecideds’ there were in the last SNP member poll. A third of those questioned by Savanta didn’t know who they’d be backing, while another third expressed their support for Humza Yousaf and a quarter said they’d back Kate Forbes.

This mirrors polling of the wider public, which shows that large numbers of voters don’t know who their preferred candidate is. A Panelbase poll found that as many as 49 per cent didn’t know who they’d like as leader while a poll by BIG Partnership revealed 31 per cent of their participants were undecided.

There hasn’t been another member poll since the beginning of March, but from speaking to SNP members outside of hustings events, it’s clear that there remains significant uncertainty about which candidate will come out on top. One member said during the final day of party hustings in Aberdeen that she had changed her mind ‘about six times’ so far and she was still not sure who she was voting for. 

What was striking about conversations after the final few party hustings events was that members were discussing the pros and cons of the candidates as though it was the first day of the contest – not hours before voting was due to begin. Many expressed relief about having two more weeks left to make up their minds.

Yousaf has received regular applause and even cheers throughout the final two days of hustings, with audience members sitting up a little straighter when it’s his turn to speak. Outside of the events though, members have expressed concerns about how ‘rehearsed’ and ‘slick’ he appears, with one comparing him to a ‘car salesman’. But for others, Yousaf’s confidence has been reassuring, with a member commenting: ‘To me, Humza has the most experience to deal with everything.’

Forbes has received slightly less audible support during these hustings, but it is clear from conversations with members outside of the hustings that she has garnered respect for her understated approach. Questions about how much her faith will influence her policies remain at the forefront of some peoples’ minds however, and there is concern about her attitude towards working with the Greens. Some members have criticised her for ‘omitting questions’ at hustings and she has come under fire for heavily criticising both Yousaf’s track record and her own party. Despite this, members find her straightforward style appealing and while at points it has been the source of major controversy, some cite her ‘honesty’ throughout the process as being admirable.

Ash Regan is not quite as unpopular among members as recent polling would suggest either, with many impressed by her relatability and ‘straight talking’ approach. While the majority of members at recent hustings have appeared in favour of the gender bill, there are some who view Regan’s pledge to dump the bill sympathetically. While Regan started out as being the most ‘provocative’ candidate with her views on net zero, the deposit return scheme and the coalition with the Greens, she is not viewed as being as openly critical of her party or colleagues as Forbes has been. Yet Regan is not regarded by many as being a serious contender in this contest, as conversations have revolved primarily around her two rivals.

From today until Monday 27 March, SNP members have another two weeks to vote for their preferred candidate to be Scotland’s next First Minister. But even though it could be said that the most important part of the race is over, all three contenders are to continue campaigning until the final minute.

It seems likely that the next two weeks will be key – and the leadership contenders themselves will have to ensure that their campaigns continue to maintain momentum. With two more televised debates to go and a belated hustings event in Inverness, the next two weeks are not going to offer the leadership candidates much time to relax.