There are two pieces of news out this morning which offer a fillip to Reform’s hopes of topping the Cardiff Bay elections next spring. The first is the long-awaited defection of former Welsh Secretary David Jones. The second is the publication of a new More in Common poll which shows Reform is set to win 28 per cent of the vote. This would translate into roughly 33 of the 96 seats in the newly-expanded Welsh parliament. At a general election, they would win 33 per cent of the vote.
As I argue in the Telegraph today, Jones’ move was long-awaited but is, nonetheless, important. He is, in some ways, the dream defection for Reform: an experienced Tory with much to offer, looking for little in return. He is, I understand, likely to be involved in policy formation and will doubtless act as a safe and dependable voice for the party on various media rounds. More defections are likely to follow in the coming weeks, which ought to knock the James McMurdock news out of the press.
But the continued growth of Reform in Wales is undoubtedly the bigger story. The More in Common poll shows that Nigel Farage is the second most popular leader here, just three points behind Rhun ap Iorwerth. Reform and Plaid Cymru meanwhile enjoy the same level of popularity among voters. In such circumstances, it is no surprise that more members of the Welsh Tories are considering their allegiances. Within Reform, at least two current sitting Conservative Members of the Senedd (MSs) are viewed as possible defectors prior to next May.
The party now boasts 16,000 members, which some suggest is more than Welsh Labour, if one excludes those who join by virtue of being trade unionists. A busy summer is expected. Record Channel crossings could put further pressure on communities in Wales, where illegal migrants are increasingly being rehoused. Given Welsh sensitivities about arrivals from England, there is obvious political scope for Reform.
It cannot be overstated how important Wales is to the overall Farage project. He and his allies have long seen a strong first or second place finish as being the definitive step on the road to 2029. Within Reform HQ, there are plenty of jokes about a ‘taffia’ running things, with a disproportionate number of staff boasting familial or professional links to Wales. If Reform is to eclipse the Tories as a truly national party by the next election, then beating the Conservatives here is a crucial step.
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