Watching the next war

Late last month, on a windswept plain near the Polish town of Zagan, the defence ministers of Poland, Germany, Norway and the Netherlands joined the Nato secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, to watch Nato’s response to Russia’s incursions into eastern Europe. The dramatic culmination of a week of military manoeuvres, Exercise Noble Jump was a spectacular show of force by Nato’s new VJTF brigade. More than 2,000 troops from nine countries fought a fierce mock-battle against irregular militia, with live ammunition. Huddled in the attendant press pack, struggling to insert my earplugs, this awesome demonstration felt like confirmation — if any were needed — that Europe stands on the brink of a new cold war.

The demonstration began with an assault on a militia hideout. Special forces moved in to dispatch the sentry with one shot. The irregulars inside were flushed out with rapid gunfire, but the militia leader escaped. Soldiers in armoured cars and on motorbikes gave chase. Fighter-bombers swooped on concealed forces and helicopters dropped more troops into the battlefield. Then the tanks rolled in. My earplugs muffled the sound of shellfire, but you could feel the force of each explosion.

No one mentioned Ukraine, but comparisons were inescapable. Nato was preparing for a new kind of conflict in which identities are not clear-cut and battle lines can be hard to draw.

Last year I was in Estonia, one of five Nato member-states that border Russia, when Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea. My host, an Estonian politician, was aghast — he saw the invasion as an act of war. Since then, Putin has asked more questions of the West. Nato’s answer has been the biggest reinforcement since the end of the Cold War. After the Nato summit in Wales last September, the alliance’s ‘ready for action’ Response Force is expanding from 13,000 to 30,000 troops.