Matthew Parris Matthew Parris

We peaceniks are going to have to pay a heavy price for Allied victory

We peaceniks are going to have to pay a heavy price for Allied victory

The high-water mark for modish opposition to the invasion of Iraq may this week have passed. Those who, like me, remain unconvinced of the case for war should prepare for a spell of unfashionability.

I write on Tuesday. I do not know whether by the time you read this the Iraqi defence effort will have begun to crumble, but it is very possible that within a week the beginnings of such a collapse will be evident – and we of the peace camp will be thrown on to the defensive. Many in that camp have persuaded themselves that, in the event of war, the case against is likely to be vindicated fast and in an obvious way. They expect the war to be long and bloody, the resistance stiff, and the result a tremendous loss of life.

I remain undeviatingly opposed to war, but accept that a massive raised American fist will often intimidate potential opponents into early surrender. It may do so now, and fast. Those who have prophesied a bloody nose for British and American troops should prepare to be proved wrong.

Let me explain how that may happen. Some of my fellow peaceniks have forgotten that it is not the mind of Saddam Hussein alone we need to read, but the minds of tens of thousands of his forward guard in politics, administration and the military.

Think for a moment about these people. They are soldiers, airmen, police officers, magistrates, civil servants, scientists, small-time politicians, people not unlike you and me. They are not monsters, they are not wicked, and the fanaticism of the regime they serve and fear, though it lies heavy on their lives, does not define their lives. By day they serve the government which employs them, but at the end of each day they return to wives and children, hopes and fears, gardens, motor cars, property and savings.

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