Limor Simhony Philpott

Western deterrence now looks hollow

(Photo by Paula Bronstein/Getty Images)

The efforts of a 20 year war took only a few weeks to overturn: the Taliban has completed its takeover of Afghanistan. As parliamentarians return to Westminster on Wednesday to discuss the situation, the focal point of the debate should be damage control.

One of the major challenges will be restoring deterrence. The withdrawal of troops, which was done hastily and without an organised exit strategy, gave the Taliban the opportunity to make quick advances, often even without the need to use violence. The last few days also saw images of western nations rushing to evacuate remaining personnel. The way these events have unfolded depicts the US and its European allies as weak, risk averse and war-weary — it undermines the West’s deterrence.

Deterrence will only be effective if there is clarity about what will trigger punishment

One of the principles of deterrence is ‘if you want peace, prepare for war’. Yet now the Taliban knows that the retreating nations will avoid another war in Afghanistan at all costs. If the government is serious about exerting global influence, the idea of a new coalition of nations should be investigated; one that is able to present the Taliban with credible and realistic threats that include military options.

Deterrence will only be effective if there is clarity about what will trigger punishment. Applying responses consistently and quickly is instrumental to effective deterrence. Sanctions or limited military operations can be done, for example, in response to actions taken by the Taliban that will increase the threat of international terrorism. Human rights violations should be met with public admonition and sanctions. A show of force in the region, for example by establishing a larger co-ordinated maritime presence, is an integral part of deterrence.

There is also a need for containment.

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