Three MPs have announced they are standing down at the next election today; proof that the expenses scandal is getting more deadly for MPs as it goes on. But, in the background, the conversation about whether Brown can survive what Anne McEloy has dubbed the Ides of June is getting louder.
Over at the always excellent Comment Central, Daniel Finkelstein and Philip Collins try and work out what the percentage chances of Brown being removed are. Danny’s calculations lead him to conclude that there’s “only a 12% chance that [Brown] goes”.
I suspect, although this is based more on a hunch than mathematics, that the number is higher than this. I don’t think Alan Johnson would be on manoeuvres if he didn’t believe there was a decent chance of the situation becoming vacant. Also, remember that last time Brown’s position was in danger some wavering Labour MPs were deterred from moving against him by the fact that there didn’t appear to be a more palatable alternative to Brown.
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