For Gordon Brown, one of the greatest boons of the Labour triumph in Glenrothes is that it gives him an opportunity to tighten his stranglehold on the economic narrative. All he need do is spin the byelection as a referendum on the Government’s approach to the downturn, and the Labour victory as a public endorsement of that approach. Unsurprisingly, it’s an opportunity he’s duly taking.
Now, with the main political battleground of the next few years likely to be the economy, these moments are pivotal. Brown can capitalise here, and – thanks to the reinvigorated Labour spin operation, and the Tories’ confused economic message – most probably will. This doesn’t make it Labour’s general election to lose, as Denis McShane is now mischievously claiming. But it’s certainly going to help Brown & Co.
Accordingly, the odds (via Ladbrokes) on a Labour victory in the next election have been cut slightly from 11/4 to 5/2. While the odds of a 2008 election have been cut from 33/1 to 16/1. Here are the full numbers:
Next General Election (to win most seats)
Conservatives — 2/7
Labour — 5/2
Liberal Democrats — 200/1
Parliamentary majority after next General Election
Conservative Overall Majority — 8/15
Labour Overall Majority — 5/1
Liberal Democrat Overall Majority — 200/1
No Overall Majority — 9/4
Year of next General Election
2008 16/1
2009 13/8
2010 1/2
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